Strong Confidence in Obama -- Country Seen as Less Politically Divided

America's Pre-Inauguration Mood

January 15, 2009

Public confidence in Barack Obama to deal with the nation's most pressing problems is quite high, with about seven-in-ten saying they have at least a fair amount of confidence that he will do the right thing when it comes to mending the economy, preventing terrorism, and dealing with Iraq. Notably, many Americans not only see the president-elect as a problem-solver, but as a "uniter" as well.

For the first time in several years, there has been a sharp decline in the proportion of Americans who say the country is more politically divided than in the past. Fewer than half (46%) now see the country as more divided, down 20 points from January 2007 (66%).

Moreover, the percentage saying that Republicans and Democrats in Washington will work together more to solve problems, rather than bicker and oppose each other, is markedly higher than it was at the start of either of President Bush's two terms. Currently, 50% say the two parties will work together more to solve problems, while 39% expect more partisan bickering. Four years ago, just 30% said the two parties would work cooperatively while nearly twice as many (59%) said they anticipated more partisan bickering. Public expectations for partisan cooperation are now as great as in January 2002, amid the mood of national unity that prevailed after the Sept. 11 attacks.

Democrats are particularly optimistic about prospects for partisan cooperation: 59% of Democrats say they expect the two parties to work together more, compared with 49% of independents and 40% of Republicans.

These trends may well reflect strikingly different perceptions of the partisan influences on President-elect Obama and President Bush. A 44% plurality says that when it comes to matters of national policy, Obama listens more to moderate members of his party, while 34% believe he listens more to liberals in his party. This is in sharp contrast to how President Bush has been viewed. Throughout most of his presidency, but particularly in his second term, Bush has been viewed as listening more to conservatives than moderates in his party.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Jan. 7-11 among 1,503 adults on cell phones and landlines, finds that Americans are enthusiastic about Obama and broadly approve of his handling of the presidential transition. Fully 79% of Americans - including 59% of Republicans - say they have a favorable impression of Obama. That is far higher than Bush's personal favorability shortly before he took office in 2001 (60%).

Seven-in-ten (70%) approve of the job Obama has done in explaining his plans and policies for the future. This rating tops those achieved by both George W. Bush and Bill Clinton as they were taking office.

About two-thirds of Americans (66%) approve of Obama's choices for his cabinet and other high-level posts. While that is slightly lower than the proportion saying this in December (71%), it exceeds positive ratings for the cabinet selections of both George W. Bush (58%) and his father (59%), and is on par with approval of Bill Clinton's cabinet picks in January 1993 (64%).

As is typically the case at this stage, most Americans think it is too early to tell whether Obama will be a successful or unsuccessful president. Yet optimists far outnumber pessimists (30% successful vs. 4% unsuccessful). At a comparable point in 2001, 26% said they expected Bush to be successful, compared with 15% who said he would be unsuccessful.

Large majorities say they have at least some confidence in Obama's judgment on the big issues facing the country - including 75% who say they have a great deal (33%) or a fair amount (42%) of confidence in Obama to do the right thing to fix the economy. His economic stimulus package, which has not been finalized but may total about $800 billion, is viewed as a good idea by 57% of those who have heard something about the plan. However, a small plurality of Republicans who have heard about the plan (43%) view the emerging proposal as a bad idea - perhaps an indication that the anticipated era of partisan cooperation may be short-lived.

Despite the troubled economy, Americans are about as optimistic about the coming year as they were at about this point a year ago. Currently, 52% say they expect that 2009 will be better than 2008, which is about the same as the percentage saying that about a year ago (50% in December 2007). Two years ago, in looking ahead to 2007, 57% expected that year to be an improvement from 2006.

The survey also finds continuing concern about the situation in Afghanistan. Far more people now believe that the military effort in Iraq is going very or fairly well than say the same about the U.S. operation in Afghanistan (59% vs. 45%).

The public's views on other aspects of the two wars also are in sharp contrast: while a large majority (69%) favors decreasing the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, there is no consensus regarding troop levels in Afghanistan. Nearly four-in-ten (39%) say the number of U.S. troops there should be decreased, while 33% say the number of forces should be increased and 20% favors keeping the number of troops the same as it is now.

Winners and Losers in New Era

The public's belief that Washington will change dramatically under the new president is seen in the groups that are expected to gain and lose influence during Obama's presidency. The list of perceived winners and losers is very different than for Bush's administration in January 2001 and more closely resembles the predicted winners and losers for Clinton's presidency in 1993.

Fully 73% say that poor people will gain influence, while just 8% say they will lose influence. Prior to both of Bush's terms, pluralities said that poor people would lose influence (40% in January 2001, 49% in January 2005). Before Clinton took office, 61% said poor people would gain influence.

Other predicted winners under Obama's presidency are younger people (71% gain influence), blacks (67%), children (64%), environmentalists (60%) and women (58%). Nearly half (47%) say that "people like yourself" will gain influence; that is greater than the percentages saying average people would gain influence under Bush's presidency in 2001 (35%) and 2005 (22%).

More than four-in-ten say that wealthy people (44%) and business corporations (42%) will lose influence under Obama's administration, the highest percentages for any group tested. A 38% plurality also says that Washington lobbyists will lose influence under the new president.

Obama and his Administration

Public opinion about President-elect Obama's transition continues to be very positive. Seven-in-ten approve of the job Obama has done so far in explaining his policies and plans for the future, while just 18% disapprove. These numbers have changed little since December (72% approve) and are significantly higher than opinions about George W. Bush (50%) and Bill Clinton (62%) before they took office.

An overwhelming majority of Democrats approve (92%) of the way Obama has explained his policies and plans. Democrats' views have not changed since December and are considerably higher than those for Clinton in 1993 (77% of Democrats approved). In contrast, Republicans' opinions are more evenly divided (44% approve, 41% disapprove), which is similar to Republicans' views in December. In January 1993, 43% of Republicans approved of Clinton's performance in explaining his policies. Two-thirds of independents (67%) approve of the job Obama has done explaining his future plans, down slightly from December when 76% approved. This is comparable to independents' ratings of Clinton in 1993 (63% approve).

As is typically the case at the beginning of a new administration, a majority of Americans (65%) say that it is too early to tell whether Obama will be a successful or unsuccessful president. The balance of opinion among those who offer an opinion is much more positive than negative; 30% of the public says Obama will be a successful president while only 4% say he will be unsuccessful.

A comparable proportion said that Bush would be successful in January 2001 (26%), but slightly more said he would be unsuccessful (15%); 58% said it was too early to tell. In the summer of 1993, after Clinton had been in office six months, 60% said it was too early to tell; 13% said Clinton would be a successful president; and 25% thought he would be unsuccessful.

Nearly half of Democrats (47%) say Obama will be successful compared with only 24% of independents and 13% of Republicans. Large majorities of Republicans (77%) and independents (73%), as well as about half of Democrats (51%), say that it is too early to tell whether Obama will be a successful president.

Confidence in Obama

Substantial majorities of Americans express confidence in Obama to do the right thing when it comes to fixing the economy, preventing terrorist attacks and handling the war in Iraq. Three-quarters of the public (75%) says they have at least a fair amount of confidence in Obama to do the right thing when it comes to fixing the economy. Similarly, 71% say they have at least a fair amount of confidence in Obama to prevent future terrorist attacks and 69% say the same about Iraq.

There are substantial partisan differences in how much confidence people have in Obama to handle these issues. Democrats are overwhelmingly confident in Obama; 91% have at least a fair amount of confidence in Obama to do the right thing when it comes to the economy, 89% in preventing terrorist attacks and 88% in Iraq. Similarly, about seven-in-ten independents have at least a fair amount of confidence in Obama to do the right thing when it comes to terrorism (74%), the economy (73%) and Iraq (69%).

A narrow majority of Republicans (52%) say they have at least a fair amount of confidence in Obama to do the right thing in fixing the economy; 44% of Republicans say they have at least a fair amount of confidence in him to do the right thing in dealing with Iraq, while 39% have confidence in him to prevent terrorist attacks.

Obama's Economic Stimulus Plan

More than eight-in-ten Americans have heard a lot (33%) or a little (53%) about Obama's proposed $800 billion economic stimulus package. Only 13% have heard nothing at all about his stimulus plan. Of those who have heard about the plan, a majority (57%) thinks the proposal is a good idea, while 22% think it is a bad idea.

Three-fourths of Democrats (75%) who have heard at least a little about Obama's proposal say it is a good idea, compared with 53% of independents and only 37% of Republicans. Conservative Republicans are particularly negative: half of conservative Republicans (50%) who have heard at least a little about the the plan say it is a bad idea, compared with 32% of moderate and liberal Republicans. Comparable majorities of liberal Democrats (79%), and moderate and conservative Democrats (73%), who have heard at least a little about the plan view it positively.

Overall, those who have heard more about the stimulus package are somewhat more likely to favor it; 63% who have heard a lot about the proposal think it is a good idea, compared with 53% who have heard a little. Democrats who have heard a lot about the proposal are particularly positive about it. Nearly nine-in-ten Democrats (87%) who have heard a lot about the proposal say it is a good idea, compared with 67% who have heard a little about it. The pattern is reversed for Republicans; those who have heard a lot about the plan are more likely to say it is a bad idea. More than half of Republicans (53%) who have heard a lot about the plan say it is a bad idea compared with only 36% who have heard a little.

Obama's Influences and Appointments

A plurality of the public (44%) says that when it comes to national policy, Obama is listening more to moderates in his party while about a third (34%) says he listens more to liberals in his party. Shortly before George W. Bush took office in 2001, more people said he was listening to conservatives in his party than to GOP moderates (48% vs. 37%). As Bush began his second term in January 2005, 54% said he listened more to conservatives in his party and only 27% said he listened more to the party's moderates.

Currently, half of Democrats say Obama is listening more to the party's moderates while 27% say he is listening more to liberal Democrats. Independents, by a slightly smaller margin (46% to 34%) also say that Obama listens more to his party's moderates. By comparison, nearly half of Republicans (48%) say Obama listens more to liberals in his party, while 37% say he listens more to moderate Democrats.

In general, Obama's choices for cabinet positions and other high-level posts get positive marks and most people say it is a good thing that many of his appointees worked in the Clinton administration. Two-thirds (66%) say they approve of Obama's choices for his cabinet and other high level appointments. That is down slightly from 71% in early December as he started to make his appointments, but is still higher than the percentages giving positive ratings to George W. Bush's top appointees in January 2001 (58%), and George H.W. Bush's in January 1989 (59%). It is comparable to the 64% approval mark for Bill Clinton's choices in January 1993.

Nearly nine-in-ten Democrats (87%) say they approve of Obama's cabinet choices, as do 63% of independents and 45% of Republicans. In January 2001, George W. Bush's choices for the cabinet and other senior positions received about the same approval rating from Democrats that Obama's choices currently receive from Republicans (44%).

Public views of Obama's advisors' ties with the Clinton administration are comparable to opinions expressed in 2001 about the ties that George W. Bush's advisors had to his father's administration. Currently, 59% say it is a "good thing" that many of Obama's top advisors served in the previous 12

Democratic administration, down slightly from 63% in early December. In 2001 as Bush took office, 56% said it was a good thing that so many of his top advisors had served in his father's administration.

Nearly eight-in-ten Democrats (79%) say it is a good thing that many Obama appointees also served under Clinton; just 4% see the ties to the Clinton administration as a bad thing. Independents, by 59% to 22%, also view the associations with the Clinton administration positively. Republicans, on balance, say it is a bad thing rather than a good thing that many of Obama's advisors served in the Clinton administration (47% to 36%).

Most Plan to Watch the Inauguration

Two-thirds of Americans (67%) say they plan to watch Obama's inauguration on Jan. 20. Not surprisingly, even higher percentages of Democrats, Obama voters and African Americans say they plan to tune in.

Fully 85% of Democrats say they plan to watch Obama's inauguration, compared with 62% of independents and 49% of Republicans. Similarly, 89% of Obama voters say they plan to watch, while just 46% of McCain voters say the same. More than nine-in-ten (92%) African Americans plan to watch the historic inauguration, which is significantly more than the 63% of white respondents who expect to tune in. Slightly more than four-in-ten (43%) say they would attend the inauguration if offered a ticket, while 56% say they would not attend. These results mirror a Fox Opinion Dynamics poll conducted in January 2005 in which 42% said they would attend that year's Bush inaugural if offered a ticket and 57% said they would not attend.

As expected, far more Democrats (54%) and independents (46%) than Republicans (23%) say they would attend the inauguration if they were offered a ticket. Nearly two-thirds of those younger than 30 (65%) say they would attend the inauguration if they were offered a ticket, the greatest share of any age group. Just 19% of those ages 65 and older say they would attend the ceremony.

Read the full report at people-press.org