Pew Research Center for the People & the Press

Swine Flu News Gets a Shot in the Arm

Fewer than Half Would Get Vaccine

October 15, 2009

As the first vials of swine flu vaccine make their way into American communities, public interest in news about the disease is increasing. Nearly as many people now cite swine flu as their top news story of the week as mention the health care debate -- the first time in several months that reports on health care have not clearly led the public's news agenda.

Close to four-in-ten Americans (38%) say they are following news about the swine flu and vaccine very closely, the highest percentage tracking the issue very closely since spring. In early May, 43% said they were following news about the swine flu very closely.

The latest weekly News Interest Index survey, conducted Oct. 9-12 among 1,003 adults by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, finds that fewer than half (46%) say news reports are presenting the swine flu's danger about right, while nearly as many (43%) say news reports are overstating the danger; just 7% say the press is understating the potential threat from the swine flu. More than half of Republicans (54%) say news reports are overstating the swine flu's danger, compared with 42% of independents and just 35% of Democrats.

Half of those younger than age 40 think the press is overstating the danger, a view shared with 43% of those ages 40 to 64 and just 29% of those age 65 and older. College graduates are more likely to say the dangers are overstated (51%) than are those with less education (39%  of those with some college experience, 40% of those with a high school degree or less).

Overall, fewer than half of Americans (47%) say that they would get the swine flu vaccine if it was available to them; an identical percentage says they would not get the vaccine. A clear majority of Democrats (60%) say they would get the swine flu vaccine if it was available, compared with 41% of Republicans and the same percentage of independents.

Despite the public's reservations over the vaccine, most Americans continue to express confidence in the government's ability to deal with the swine flu. Currently, 64% say they are very (17%) or somewhat (47%) confident in the government's ability to deal with the swine flu, which is virtually unchanged from late August (65% at least somewhat confident). Three-quarters of Democrats (75%) and 62% of independents express confidence in the government to handle this issue, compared with 51% of Republicans.

Why Not Get the Vaccine?

Those who say they would not get the swine flu vaccine point to a variety of reasons for their decision, including personal factors. But the most frequently mentioned reason -- cited by 35% -- is that the swine flu vaccine is too risky or that it has not been thoroughly tested.

Nearly a quarter (23%) say that they are healthy and do not get the flu, or that they simply avoid getting shots. And 16% express a more general skepticism about vaccinations or say that flu shots in general make them sick

One-in-ten (10%) of those who say they would not get the vaccine say that the risk of swine flu has been exaggerated. A comparable percentage (9%) -- including a relatively large proportion of those ages 65 and older -- say that they are not in a high-risk group, or that they want to save the vaccine for at-risk people.

Health Care, Swine Flu Top Stories

A quarter of Americans (25%) followed news about the health care debate more closely than any other news story this week, while about as many (24%) cited reports about the swine flu and the vaccine as their top story. This marks the first time since mid-July that health care reform has not clearly been the public's top story. At that time, the death of Michael Jackson was the most closely followed story.

The public is evenly divided over the prospects for congressional passage of health care reform legislation over the next year: 46% say a health are reform bill will not pass, while 45% say it will pass. A majority of Democrats (56%) expect a bill to pass, compared with 47% of independents and 28% of Republicans.

In terms of news coverage for the week, the U.S. military effort in Afghanistan was the top story, accounting of 20% of all coverage, according to separate analysis by the Project for Excellence in Journalism (PEJ). By contrast, 10% of coverage was devoted to the health care debate and 5% to swine flu during the week of Oct. 5-11, according to PEJ.

Only about one-in-ten Americans (11%) cited news about Afghanistan as their top story, which trailed mentions of the economy (16%) as well as swine flu and the health care debate. However, public interest in the U.S. military effort in Afghanistan has increased in recent weeks. Currently, 31% say they are tracking Afghanistan news very closely, the highest percentage this year.

Interest in economic news has remained fairly steady in recent weeks, and most Americans (66%) continue to say that they are hearing a mix of both good and bad news about the economy; 27% say they are hearing mostly bad economic news while just 6% say they are hearing mostly good news. Views of economic news are little changed from early September.

In other news, Barack Obama winning the Nobel Peace Prize was the top story for 9% of the public; less than quarter (23%) tracked this story very closely. Nearly twice as many Democrats (30%) as Republicans (17%) followed news about Obama's surprise Nobel victory very closely.

These findings are based on the most recent installment of the weekly News Interest Index, an ongoing project of the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. The index, building on the Center's longstanding research into public attentiveness to major news stories, examines news interest as it relates to the news media's coverage. The weekly survey is conducted in conjunction with The Project for Excellence in Journalism's News Coverage Index, which monitors the news reported by major newspaper, television, radio and online news outlets on an ongoing basis. In the most recent week, data relating to news coverage were collected from Oct. 5-11, 2009 and survey data measuring public interest in the top news stories of the week were collected Oct. 9-12, 2009 from a nationally representative sample of 1,003 adults.

View the topline and survey methodology at people-press.org.