Pew Research Center for the People & the Press

Legislative Lessons

Most Unaware of Votes Needed for Health Care Bill

March 17, 2010

As President Obama and Democratic leaders mounted what was characterized as the final push to pass health care reform legislation last week, the public followed the health care debate more closely than any other major story (33% say they followed this story most closely). The debate also topped media coverage.

The percentage of Americans who say they think Congress will pass health care legislation this year edged up to 43%, but about half (49%) still say lawmakers will not pass a bill in 2010.

Among Democrats, 61% now say they think a health care reform bill will pass this year, up from 49% one week earlier. Only 27% of Republicans and 38% of independents say they think a bill will pass, unchanged from the previous week, according to the latest News Interest Index survey, conducted March 12-15 among 1,019 adults by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press.

Most Unaware of Votes Needed for Health Care Bill

Most Americans say they have heard at least a little about the tactics contemplated by congressional Democrats and Republicans for the showdown over the health care legislation. Still, only a third (33%) correctly answer that the next major step in the Senate is likely to require 51 votes, not 60 -- the number needed to break a Republican filibuster. Close to half (46%) say they have not heard about this procedural issue.

Among those who say they are following the health care debate very closely, about half (51%) correctly say that a simple majority -- 51 votes -- is expected to be needed for a Senate vote on changes to the bill first passed by the chamber just before Christmas. Just 21% of those following less closely say this.

There is little difference among partisans in the number saying that 51 votes are likely to be required in the Senate. Men are more likely than women to say this (40% vs. 26%), college graduates are more likely than those with a high school diploma or less schooling (41% vs. 21%) and those age 65 and older are more likely to say this than those 39 or younger (48% vs. 23%).

Meanwhile, four in ten say they have heard a lot about the legislative approach Democrats might use to try to pass the health care bill; 43% say they have heard a little about this and 16% say they have heard nothing at all. About a third (34%) say they have heard a lot about the legislative approach Republicans might use to block the bill. Another 47% say they have heard a little about this and 19% say they have heard nothing at all.

Half of Republicans say they have heard a lot about expected Democratic strategy, compared with 36% of Democrats and 39% of independents. Fewer Republicans (33%) say they have heard a lot about their own party's strategy, compared with 40% of Democrats. About three-in-ten independents (31%) say they heard a lot about this.

Not surprisingly, those following the debate very closely are much more likely than those following less closely to have heard about the potential strategies. More than six in ten of those following very closely (62%) say they have heard a lot about the approach the Democrats might use, compared with 26% of those following less closely. More than half (52%) of those following very closely say they heard a lot about the approach Republicans might use to block the bill, compared with 23% of those following less closely.

Dems More Optimistic About Passage

Shortly after Republican Scott Brown won the Jan. 19 special election in Massachusetts to replace Ted Kennedy in the U.S. Senate, the percentage of Americans saying a health care bill would pass this year dropped sharply from 57% to 27%. It has been inching up since mid-February, as Democratic lawmakers have worked to find a way to enact Obama's top legislative priority.

Currently 43% say the bill will pass, not significantly larger than the 39% one week earlier, but 16 points greater than the 27% recorded Feb. 19-22. The increase over the past week has come entirely among Democrats. Currently, 61% of Democrats say they think a health care reform bill will pass this year, up from 49% a week earlier. The numbers of Republicans and independents who say this is unchanged.

There also is no change in the perceptions of those following the debate very closely. Among those following less closely, 41% now think a bill will pass, up from 34% the previous week.

Health Care and Economy Remain Top Stories

About four-in-ten say they followed news about health care reform (40%) or the economy (41%) very closely last week. A third say they followed news about the health care debate more closely than any other story, while 18% say they followed news about the economy most closely.

Those two stories also received the most coverage, according to a separate analysis by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism. Reporting about health care accounted for 19% of the newshole, while stories about the economy made up 12%.

Close to a quarter (23%) very closely followed news about problems with sudden acceleration in Toyota vehicles; 12% say this was the story they followed most closely. Toyota's troubles accounted for 5% of the newshole. About two in ten (18%) say they followed news about the earthquake aftershocks in Chile very closely; 12% say this was the story they followed most closely. News about the aftershocks accounted for 1% of the newshole.

Just over two in ten (22%) say they followed events in Iraq very closely, while 7% say they followed this news more closely than any other major story. News about Iraq and the most recent elections there accounted for 3% of the newshole.

Fewer than one in ten (7%) say they very closely followed news about the resignation of New York Rep. Eric Massa amid allegations of improper conduct with staff members. This story accounted for 5% of the newshole, but just 1% say this was the story they followed most closely last week.

About four in ten (39%) say the Massa story received too much attention, though 32% say it received the right amount. About three in ten (31%) say the Toyota story received too much attention, but a majority (53%) says this story received the right amount of coverage.

Significant minorities thought the media devoted too little attention last week to both Iraq (39%) and health care reform (36%). Still, pluralities (46% each) say the stories received the right amount of coverage.

These findings are based on the most recent installment of the weekly News Interest Index, an ongoing project of the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. The index, building on the Center's longstanding research into public attentiveness to major news stories, examines news interest as it relates to the news media's coverage. The weekly survey is conducted in conjunction with The Project for Excellence in Journalism's News Coverage Index, which monitors the news reported by major newspaper, television, radio and online news outlets on an ongoing basis. In the most recent week, data relating to news coverage were collected March 8-14, and survey data measuring public interest in the top news stories of the week were collected March 12-15 from a nationally representative sample of 1,019 adults.

View the topline and survey methodology at people-press.org.