Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life

Religion in the 2008 Presidential Election

An Analysis of 2008 Exit Polls

August 11, 2010

The Democratic Party made a concerted effort to court religious voters in the 2008 presidential election that pitted Democrat Barack Obama against Republican John McCain. Led by Obama himself and aided by progressive religious activists, the Democrats reached out to numerous religious groups in hopes of narrowing the "God gap," a media catchphrase for a striking pattern in American politics: the more often Americans go to church or other worship services, the more likely they are to vote Republican.

An analysis of newly released exit poll data by the Pew Research Center's Forum on Religion & Public Life finds that Obama succeeded in attracting a larger share of the vote from some religious groups than the 2004 Democratic nominee, John Kerry, had received. Among white evangelical Protestants, for example, Obama picked up 5 percentage points more support than Kerry (26% vs. 21%). And Obama's gains were particularly large among white evangelical Protestants younger than the age of 40. He received 33% of their votes, compared with 12% for Kerry four years earlier.

In general, however, the contours of religion and politics were the same in 2008 as in 2004. Religion remained a very strong predictor of voters' choices, and the large gaps in the electorate that had developed along religious lines in earlier elections persisted in 2008. Some of Obama's largest gains, in fact, were among religious groups that already leaned Democratic, such as black Protestants and religiously unaffiliated voters (those who answer "none" when asked about their religious affiliation in exit polls).

Among the most religiously observant Americans -- those who say they attend worship services more than once a week (12% of the total electorate in 2008) -- Obama received 43% of the vote, up from 35% for Kerry. But all of Obama's 8-point improvement among these very frequent churchgoers came from minorities, who voted Democratic in 2008 by even larger margins than in 2004.

One group that moved strongly in the Democratic direction after having voted Republican in 2004 was Hispanic, Asian and other minority Protestants, not including blacks. These voters (about 3% of the total electorate) had backed Bush over Kerry by a 58%-to-39% margin in 2004. In 2008, 56% of this group voted for Obama.

But there was little change among other traditionally Republican and swing-voting religious groups, especially white voters who say they attend religious services at least once a week. Obama received the votes of 41% of observant white Catholics (compared with 39% for Kerry), 38% of observant white mainline Protestants (compared with 42% for Kerry) and 20% of observant white evangelical Protestants (compared with 17% for Kerry). Among all white Christian voters who say they go to church at least once a week, Obama received about the same level of support that Kerry did in 2004 (29% for Obama, 28% for Kerry).

The religious composition of the electorate also remained remarkably stable from 2004 to 2008. The overall stability in the relative sizes of the major religious groups is another way in which the contours of religion and politics remained much the same in 2008 as in 2004.

These conclusions result from an analysis by the Pew Forum of 2008 exit polls conducted by the National Election Pool, a consortium of news organizations consisting of ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, NBC News and The Associated Press. The exit poll data were released to the public in May 2010 through the Roper Public Opinion Archives. The newly released data allow a much deeper examination of voting patterns than was previously possible, including breaking the electorate into smaller religious groups and simultaneously taking into account frequency of church attendance, racial or ethnic identity, age, income and other factors. This analysis is based on respondents who were asked religion questions and compares the results with voters who were asked the same questions by the 2004 National Election Pool.

Read the full report at pewforum.org.

Also see the Pew Research Center's Forum on Religion & Public Life new "Religion & Politics 2010" page for more voting trends by religious groups, election news briefs related to religion, resources on religion in America and more Pew Forum reports on the intersection of religion and politics.