Obama Tests Well at Start of Reelection Run

No Frontrunner in Slow-Starting GOP Race

March 23, 2011

Barack Obama currently fares as well against a generic opponent in the upcoming presidential election as George W. Bush did in April 2003, a time when Bush's job approval rating was much higher than Obama's is today. He also tests considerably better than Bill Clinton did in March 1995.

Nearly half (47%) of registered voters say they would like to see Barack Obama reelected, while 37% say they would prefer to see a Republican candidate win the 2012 election, according to the survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press conducted March 8-14 among 1,525 adults. In April 2003, 48% of registered voters said they would like to see Bush reelected in 2004; 34% said they would prefer to see a Democrat win.

At the time, the Iraq war was viewed as moving to a successful conclusion and Bush's job approval rating among the public stood at 72%. In a survey released earlier this month, 51% of the public approved of the way Obama is handling his job as president.

In part, Obama is benefitting from the fact that the GOP has yet to coalesce behind a candidate. About one-in-five (21%) Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters say they would like to see Mitt Romney win the nomination while about the same percentage (20%) chooses Mike Huckabee; 13% back Sarah Palin, 11% opt for Newt Gingrich and 8% back Ron Paul. At this early stage in the race, 15% of GOP voters have no preference.

The race for the Republican nomination has gotten off to a much slower start than the presidential race four years ago. The Pew Research Center's news interest surveys have found that the campaign is drawing far less coverage and public interest than the previous presidential campaign at this stage. During the 2008 campaign, there were nomination races in both parties.

Through the first 10 weeks of 2007, coverage of the campaign accounted for about 7% of all news coverage on average, according to an analysis of coverage by Pew Research's Project for Excellence in Journalism. Through the first 10 weeks of this year -- a period that has seen a series of major international stories -- coverage of the 2012 campaign has accounted for only about 1% of the newshole.

The survey finds that Barack Obama's personal favorability remains fairly strong: 58% of the public say they have a favorable opinion of him while 39% view him unfavorably. Michelle Obama's favorable ratings continue to be higher than her husband's. Currently, 69% say they have a favorable opinion of Michelle Obama, compared with 21% who have an unfavorable opinion of her.

Views of John Boehner are little changed from December, the month before he officially became speaker of the House. About a quarter (26%) say they have a favorable opinion of the Ohio Republican, 27% say they have an unfavorable opinion. Nearly half (48%) have never heard of Boehner (32%) or cannot rate him (16%).

Meanwhile, favorable ratings for Obama's two predecessors in the White House have improved considerably since 2008. Currently, 42% say they have a favorable opinion of George W. Bush while 54% have an unfavorable view. Bush's favorable ratings are at their highest point in four years and have increased from a low of 31% in April 2008.

Bill Clinton's favorable ratings have rebounded after declining during Hillary Clinton's campaign for the Democratic nomination. Currently, 67% have a favorable opinion of Clinton, up 15 points since February 2008. Clinton's current mark is in line with his ratings in 2005 and 2006.

Obama's Obstacles, Advantages

In his reelection race, Obama is running about as well as Bush did at this stage in 2003. Obama holds a 10-point lead even though opinions about the president and his party -- and views of national conditions -- are much less positive than they were for Bush and the GOP in April 2003, when the Iraq war was still widely seen as going well.

For most of the past year, the percent expressing positive views of national conditions has remained below 30% (22% in the new survey). In April 2003, fully half of Americans (50%) said they were satisfied with the way things were going in the country.

While Obama is viewed favorably today (58%), Bush's favorable ratings in April 2003 were much higher (72%). More than six-in-ten (63%) viewed the GOP favorably in April 2003; today 48% have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party.

Yet Obama and his party hold several advantages. For one thing the Republican Party's image is fairly negative. Just 42% have a favorable opinion of the GOP while 51% view the party unfavorably. The public currently has a mixed view of the Democratic Party (48% favorable vs. 45% unfavorable).

Moreover, the Democratic Party currently holds a seven-point lead over the Republican Party in party affiliation (32% to 25%) in Pew Research surveys conducted so far this year. In early 2003, as many people affiliated with the GOP (31%) as with the Democratic Party (31%).

Comparisons between Obama and Clinton at a similar point in his reelection bid are difficult, because of the prospect that Clinton would face a three-way race with a viable independent candidate, Ross Perot. Still, while Obama holds a clear lead in the generic ballot, in March 1995 Clinton ran about even with unnamed Republican: 29% of all Americans said they would like to see Clinton reelected, 33% said they would prefer an unnamed Republican and 20% said they would prefer an independent candidate.

In many ways, Clinton's position at the start of the 1996 campaign was far weaker than Obama's is today. The Republican Party's favorable ratings were 17 points higher than the Democrats' (67% to 50%). In addition, the GOP held an edge (34% to 29%) over the Democrats in party affiliation, based on surveys conducted in February and March 1995.

Continue reading the full report, including an in-depth look at how Obama is doing with independents and the race for the GOP presidential nomination, as well as the topline questionnaire and survey methodology, at people-press.org.