Pew Research Center for the People & the Press

Obama Loses Ground in 2012 Reelection Bid

In GOP, Romney Leads, Attentive Like Perry, Bachmann Most Visible

July 28, 2011

The sizeable lead Barack Obama held over a generic Republican opponent in polls conducted earlier this year has vanished as his support among independent voters has fallen off. Currently, 41% of registered voters say they would like to see Barack Obama reelected, while 40% say they would prefer to see a Republican candidate win in 2012. In May, Obama held an 11-point lead.

This shift is driven by a steep drop-off in support for Obama among independents. The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted July 20-24 among 1,501 adults and 1,205 registered voters finds that just 31% of independent voters want to see Obama reelected, down from 42% in May and 40% in March. Where Obama held a slim seven-point edge among independent registered voters two months ago, a generic Republican holds an eight-point edge today.

This is consistent with a drop in Obama's approval among all independents. Currently, a majority (54%) disapprove of Obama's performance for the first time in his presidency. His approval among independents has slipped to 36% from 42% last month and 49% in late May. (See "Public Wants a Debt Ceiling Compromise, Expects a Deal Before Deadline.")

Meanwhile, there is no greater clarity to the GOP nomination race. Only about a quarter of voters (24%) have given a lot of thought to their 2012 options. That rises to just 30% among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Overall, Romney continues to hold a significant lead among Republican voters: 21% say they would like to see him win the nomination. Rick Perry gets the support of 12%; 11% back Sarah Palin, 11% Michele Bachmann, 9% Ron Paul and 8% Herman Cain. No other candidate receives more than 3% of the support of Republican-oriented voters. Perry and Palin have not yet said whether they will run.

The race for the support of Tea Party backers is even more up-for-grabs, with five candidates (Romney, Perry, Bachman, Palin and Cain) all garnering the support of between 12% and 16%.

Perry Fares Well Among Most Attentive

While Texas Gov. Rick Perry is a relatively new name in discussions of the GOP race, he is drawing strong interest from highly attentive Republicans.

Among Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters who say they have given a lot of thought to the candidates, 22% support Perry, 15% Romney, 13% Bachmann and 12% Cain.

And Perry's lead is substantial among highly attentive Tea Party supporters. Perry has the backing of 29% of Republicans and Republican-leaners who agree with the Tea Party. That is nearly double the backing for the next closest candidate, Herman Cain (16%). The overall frontrunner, Mitt Romney, receives the backing of 11% of highly engaged Tea Party voters.

Tea Party Intensity Continues

Early signs suggest that Tea Party supporters remain the most engaged and committed segment of the Republican base. Republicans and Republican-leaning independent voters who agree with the Tea Party are more than twice as likely as other Republicans to have given a lot of thought to the 2012 election (44% vs. 18%). They also are much more likely to say they are very closely following campaign news (36% vs. 16%), and significantly more committed to voting in their state's Republican primary or caucus next year (83% vs. 69%).

Some of these differences can be explained by the demographic profile of Tea Party Republicans. In particular, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who agree with the Tea Party movement are significantly older and more highly educated than those who do not. (See a demographic profile of Tea Party Republicans here.) But even when these demographic characteristics are taken into account, agreement with the Tea Party is strongly linked with campaign interest and commitment to voting.

Yet it is important to note that even among those who say they are very likely to vote in the 2012 primaries, only about half of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say they agree with the Tea Party movement. The other half either disagrees or has no opinion either way.

Bachmann the Most Visible Candidate

While not a clear frontrunner, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann is currently the most visible candidate in the GOP field. When asked what possible candidate they've heard the most about in the news recently, almost a quarter of Americans (23%) offer Bachmann's name.

But candidate visibility has fluctuated widely over the past few months. In mid-June, Americans said they were hearing the most about former Romney (27%). Now, Romney rates second, with 13% saying they have heard the most about him recently. Just two months ago, Donald Trump and Newt Gingrich were the most visible candidates in the field.

Rick Perry has the support of many highly-engaged Republican voters, but his public visibility remains limited. Just 3% of Americans -- and the same percentage of Republicans and Republican leaners -- say he is the potential candidate they have been hearing the most about. Similarly, fewer than 1% cite Herman Cain as the candidate they have been hearing the most about recently.

Read the full report and see the questionnaire and methodology at people-press.org