Pew Research Center for the People & the Press

'Enthusiasm Gap' Favors Democrats This Year

A Reversal from 1994

June 27, 2006

With less than five months to go before Election Day, Democrats hold distinct advantages in the midterm campaign that they have not enjoyed for some time. Voters continue to say they favor the Democratic candidate in their district, by a 51% to 39% margin. And the level of enthusiasm about voting among Democrats is unusually high, and is atypically low among Republicans. In fact, Democrats now hold a voter enthusiasm advantage that is the mirror image of the GOP's edge in voter zeal leading up to the 1994 midterm election.

Public anger with Congress continues to rise, and anti-incumbent sentiment has reached new highs, according to the latest survey of 1,501 Americans conducted June 14-19 by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. The sour public mood currently favors the minority party, as 46% of Democratic voters say they are more enthusiastic about voting than usual, compared with just 30% of Republicans. In October 1994, Republicans held a comparable advantage on this measure (by 45%-30%).

Among the survey's other findings:

• Increased Democratic intensity is mostly driven by anger toward President Bush and Republican leaders, not by support for the party and its leaders. Fully 64% of Democrats say their party is doing only a fair or poor job in standing up for its traditional positions on such things as protecting the interests of minorities and helping the poor.


• Many of the issues that have drawn considerable attention recently rank among the least important to voters. While three-quarters of voters or more rate such issues as education, the economy and Iraq as very important, about half (49%) view a constitutional amendment to ban flag burning as very important. Even fewer say that about ending the inheritance tax, abortion, global warming, and gay marriage.


• On immigration, a solid majority (56%) supports increasing border protection and also creating a way for illegal immigrants to become citizens; just 40% favor focusing mostly on border protection and stiffer penalties for people who enter the U.S. illegally. But voters who emphasize enforcement and penalties rate the issue as more important than voters who also favor a "path to citizenship" for some illegal immigrants.

Read the full report at people-press.org