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Pew Research Center for the People & the Press
Democrats Hold Solid Lead; Strong Anti-Incumbent, Anti-Bush Mood
As the congressional midterm campaign begins in earnest, the mood of the electorate is sharply drawn. Voters are disappointed with Congress and disapproving of President Bush. Anti-incumbent sentiment, while a bit lower than a few months ago, is far more extensive than in the previous two midterms and remains close to 1994 levels. Moreover, there are indications that voters are viewing the election through the prism of national issues and concerns. Many more voters see their vote as being against the president than at a comparable point in 1994, and a solid majority says party control of Congress will be a factor in their voting decision.
Voters are expressing strong and consistent anti-Republican attitudes. The GOP lags well behind the Democratic Party on nearly all major issues, including the economy, Iraq, education, health care, the environment and the budget deficit. And the Republicans have lost ground in recent years even on such traditional strengths as terrorism and improving the nation's morality.
As in six previous surveys over the past 12 months, voters again say they favor the Democratic congressional candidate in their district by a wide margin (50%-39%). When the sample is narrowed to likely voters, approximately half of registered voters, the Democratic lead is undiminished. That Democrats poll as well among likely voters as among all voters may reflect the fact that Democrats, in contrast to recent campaigns, are more enthusiastic about voting than are Republicans.
Voter preferences in the midterm elections have remained very consistent over the past year. Since September 2005, the Democrats' advantage in the congressional test ballot has fluctuated only modestly, between nine and 12 points. Democratic gains this year are coming from a range of different groups, including several - like affluent Americans and college graduates - that typically lean Republican.
In addition, Democratic support among women is much greater than in the previous midterm four years ago. And men, who are now about evenly divided in their voter preferences, backed the Republican candidate by a wide margin in 2002. The GOP also is suffering some internal defections, as more moderate and liberal Republican voters say they will support a Democratic candidate than did so in 2002. (For a detailed comparison of voting preferences in 2002 and this year, see page 17.)
The electorate's discontent with Washington, which surged to record levels in June, is only modestly diminished heading into the fall campaign. Nearly four-in-ten voters (38%) say this Congress has accomplished less than its predecessors; this mirrors the negative assessment of congressional accomplishments in October 1994. As many as 36% say they see their ballot this fall as a vote against the president. Far more voters express this sentiment in the current election cycle than in any midterm campaign dating to 1982.
The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Sept. 6-10 among 1,507 adults (1,191 registered voters) finds that recent developments related to terrorism - including Bush's series of speeches on the subject - have raised the profile of the issue with the public. Currently, 15% cite terrorism as the most important problem facing the country, the highest percentage in three years. However, many more people (26%) volunteer that the war in Iraq is the most pressing problem confronting the nation. And there is no evidence that the renewed focus on terrorism has improved Bush's standing; his job approval rating stands at 37%, unchanged from August.