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Stateline.org
Election '06 - GOP Edge at Stake
Heading into Election Day, at least a dozen governors' races and 14 of the most competitive statehouses are still up in the air, as Democrats aim to overturn the edge Republicans gained at the state level in 1994.
Democrats' success in this year's midterm elections will be measured not just by their likely gains in Congress, but also by how many governors' mansions and statehouses they control once the votes are counted. Republicans currently have the upper hand in both statehouses and governors' offices, but the margins in state capitols are wafer-thin and results of Tuesday's election could upend them.
Voters will cast their ballots for 36 governors and 6,119 state lawmakers in 46 states. Also up for grabs are spots for 30 attorneys general and 27 secretaries of state, posts that serve as launching pads for the governorship. And in a handful of states, voters will take up important but fractious social issues such as abortion, stem cell research and affirmative action that could trigger national repercussions.
Even without Republican congressional scandals and an unpopular war and president, the GOP went into the 2006 gubernatorial sweepstakes with a disadvantage. Republicans have 22 governor's posts to defend on election day, while Democrats have 14. In addition, nine of 10 open gubernatorial seats, in which no incumbent is running, are currently in GOP hands.
Currently, Republicans command a 28-to-22 advantage in the nation's governor's suites, but Democrats appear to be in reach of flipping control in Arkansas, Colorado, Massachusetts, New York and Ohio where Republican governors are not running again. The GOP also is hoping two of its own -- Govs. Robert Ehrlich Jr. of Maryland and Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota - can hang on to their seats in two of the most competitive gubernatorial contests.
Recent allegations in Nevada put Democrats in striking distance to take the governorship from the GOP. U.S. Rep. Jim Gibbons, the Republican candidate for governor to replace term-limited Gov. Kenny Guinn, has denied accusations that he assaulted and propositioned a cocktail waitress after a night of drinking or that he acted improperly in helping a friend get a military contract. However, the incidents could help give Nevada its first female governor, Democratic challenger Dina Titus. Idaho, which once was considered a safe Republican seat, also is increasingly competitive.
But seizing a majority of the nation's governorships is far from a cakewalk for the Democrats. Democratic Govs. John Baldacci of Maine, Jim Doyle of Wisconsin, Jennifer Granholm of Michigan, and Ted Kulongoski of Oregon all are in tight races.
Other tight gubernatorial races that will be closely watched election night are in Alaska, Florida, Iowa and Rhode Island.
Farther down on the ballot are several hot attorney general races with some familiar names. Jerry Brown hopes to add California attorney general to a resume that already include California governor, Oakland mayor and presidential hopeful. Delaware and New York both have famous sons on the ballot as the Democratic candidates for attorney general. In Delaware, it's Beau Biden, the son of U.S. Sen. Joe Biden (D-Del.), and in New York, Andrew Cuomo, son of three-term former New York Gov. Mario Cuomo (D). Kansas has one of the most closely watched attorney general races involving incumbent Phill Kline (R) who made headlines by seeking access to medical records of women who had abortions. Currently Democrats hold a 29-to-21 lead over Republicans in attorney general posts.
At the statehouse level, the GOP currently controls both chambers in 20 state legislatures, compared to Democratic majorities in both chambers in 19 states. Ten statehouses are split between the parties (Nebraska has the nation's only nonpartisan, unicameral Legislature).
Some observers predict 2006 could be on par with 1974, when Democrats won more than 600 statehouse seats following Watergate, and 1994, when the GOP picked up 500 state legislative seats in the wake of President Clinton's failed universal health care bid. But Democrats have their work cut out for them. Some 80 percent of statehouse seats are considered "safe" seats for the incumbents, so Democrats not only will have to win competitive seats, but those seats have to be in state chambers where the margins are close.