Pew Research Center for the People & the Press
Thompson Demonstrates Broad Potential Appeal
Bush Approval Falls to 29% -- Lowest Ever
Former Sen. Fred Thompson has broad potential appeal among Republican voters even before his expected entrance into the presidential race. Thompson is not nearly as well known as former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani or the other leading GOP candidates. But 37% of the Republican and Republican-leaning voters who have heard of Thompson say there is a "good chance" they will support him. This is equal to the level of support Giuliani receives from GOP voters who have heard of him, and reflects far more enthusiasm than any of the other Republican candidates garner.
Democratic voters continue to express somewhat more enthusiasm for their party's top-tier candidates than do Republicans, and Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama continue to draw the greatest potential support. The enthusiasm advantage Clinton enjoyed in February has all but disappeared, as the percentage of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters saying there is a good chance they would support her has dipped from 52% to 44%.
Support for Obama is unchanged from February; 40% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters say there is a good chance they would vote for him. Former Vice President Al Gore has gained ground in recent months - 34% say there is a good chance they would vote for Gore today, up from 27% in February.
The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted May 30-June 3 among 1,503 adults, finds that overall voter engagement in the presidential campaign remains somewhat limited, despite intense press coverage of the race. Just 33% of all voters say they have given a lot of thought to the presidential candidates, up only modestly from December (27%). However, Republican voters have caught up with the Democrats in campaign engagement, after trailing in previous surveys.
Many voters are dimly aware of even heavily covered aspects of the candidates' positions and backgrounds. For instance, just 37% of all registered voters could correctly identify Giuliani as the leading Republican candidate who favors a woman's right to choose when it comes to abortion. Among Republican and Republican-leaning voters, just 43% correctly identified Giuliani.
The survey finds a wide partisan gap in the campaign issues that Republican and Democratic voters view as very important. Health care, the war in Iraq, and the economy are the leading issues for Democrats; roughly eight-in-ten Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters cite these issues as very important to their vote. By contrast, just 56% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say that health care will be very important in their vote, while 64% cite the war in Iraq.
Far more Republican than Democratic voters say that terrorism and immigration will be very important issues in their voting decisions. Roughly six-in-ten GOP voters (63%) say immigration will be very important, compared with fewer than half of Democratic voters (47%).
Abortion is not a top-tier issue among either Democratic or Republican voters. Only about four-in-ten Republicans and Republican leaning voters (43%), and slightly fewer Democrats (38%), say that abortion will be very important to their voting decisions. Among Republicans, abortion rates about as important as the environment.
The survey finds that President Bush's job approval rating has declined significantly since April. Bush's approval rating stands at 29% - the lowest of his presidency - down from 35% two months ago. Bush has lost substantial support from his Republican base. Only about two-thirds of Republicans (65%) approve of Bush's job performance, which also is the lowest mark of his presidency. As recently as April, 77% of Republicans approved of the way Bush was handling his job as president.