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Pew Research Center for the People & the Press
Petraeus' Proposals Draw Public Approval, But Fail to Lift War Support
Increases in Optimism Are Mostly Limited to Republicans
Last week's congressional testimony by General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker, followed by President Bush's address to the nation, has not changed bottom-line public attitudes toward the war in Iraq. However, there has been a modest increase in positive views about the U.S. military effort, accompanied by largely positive public reactions to General Petraeus' recommendations.
Most Americans (57%) who heard at least something about Petraeus' report say they approve of his recommendations for troop withdrawals, which President Bush has endorsed. However, just 16% say Petraeus' statements have made them more optimistic about the war, while 67% say their views were unchanged by the general's report.
The mostly stable opinions about the war and U.S. policies toward Iraq are consistent with this assessment. In the current survey, a 47% plurality says the United States will probably or definitely fail to achieve its goals in Iraq, which is largely unchanged from July (49%). Most important, opinions about whether to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq have not changed at all over the past two months: 54% believe U.S. forces should be brought home as soon as possible while 39% say U.S. troops should remain in Iraq until the situation is stable.
The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Sept. 12-16 among 1,501 adults, finds there has been modest improvement in public perceptions of the U.S. military effort in Iraq.
Currently, 41% say the U.S. military effort is going very or fairly well, up from 36% in July. In addition, 31% say that President Bush's troop increase is making things better in Iraq, which is somewhat higher than in April (24%); however, as was the case in April, nearly half (46%) say the troop increase is having no effect. As is the case with several measures of opinion about Iraq, most of the increases in positive views regarding the surge have come among Republicans.
The public's outlook on several aspects of America's involvement in Iraq has improved over the summer, though the balance of opinion remains negative in most areas. The proportion saying progress is being made toward military goals, in particular, has edged upward since February, after a year of generally growing frustration throughout 2006.
Notably, the number saying the U.S. is making progress in reducing the number of civilian casualties rose from 21% in July to 37% today – the highest percentage measured since the question was first asked in December 2005. Nearly half of Americans (48%) still believe the United States is losing ground in reducing civilian casualties, though that represents a sharp decline since July (65%).
Relative to earlier in the year, more today say America is making progress in defeating the insurgents militarily, and preventing terrorists from establishing bases in Iraq from which they can attack elsewhere. And the proportion saying that the United States is making progress in preventing a civil war stands at 26%, up eight points since February.
But the public's outlook on the situation in Iraq is hardly rosy. In fact, the balance of opinion is the most negative when it comes to preventing a civil war between religious and ethnic groups in Iraq – a 57% majority believes the United States is losing ground on this front. In addition, roughly half say the U.S. is losing ground in establishing democracy in Iraq (49%). Regarding the goal of getting Iraqi leaders to cooperate, only about a third (35%) see progress being achieved while 49% say the U.S. is losing ground.
The public is most optimistic with regard to training Iraqi military forces, with 50% saying progress is being achieved. This is an improvement from July when just 42% saw progress in this area. But it is well below earlier marks; as recently as June 2006, 61% said the U.S. was making progress in training the Iraqi military.