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Pew Research Center for the People & the Press
Clinton Pressed in Iowa, But Holds Solid Leads Elsewhere
Democrats enter the presidential primary campaign upbeat about their candidates and united in their views on major issues. Sen. Hillary Clinton is the Democratic frontrunner in three key early primary states, holding a slim five-point edge over Barack Obama in Iowa and more substantial 19-point and 14-point leads in New Hampshire and South Carolina, respectively.
Clinton has a clear advantage on the key issue of health care, and leads among Democratic women voters in all three states – where women constitute majorities of the likely caucus and primary electorates. Her lead is also particularly wide among older voters – voters over age 50 in all three states favor her over Obama by more than two-to-one.
Overall, Clinton's standing in Iowa and New Hampshire is no better than Howard Dean's at a comparable point in the 2004 presidential campaign. However, Clinton has stronger support in all three states than did the former Vermont governor. Indeed, there is considerably more strong support for each of the three leading Democratic candidates in Iowa – Clinton, Obama and John Edwards – than there was for Dean and the other leading Iowa contenders four years ago.
This strong backing reflects the high level of enthusiasm among Democratic voters in each of the early states, as well as nationwide. Democrats rate the field of candidates far more positively than they did at this point in the 2004 campaign. Democratic voters also are in broad agreement about the importance of major issues and are overwhelmingly opposed to President Bush and the Iraq war. Overall, the war and health care are the dominant concerns of Democratic voters nationally and those in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
There are divisions among primary state Democrats, particularly in the area of social policy. Democrats in South Carolina, where African Americans constitute approximately half of the electorate, hold more conservative opinions on gay marriage, abortion, and the cultural impact of immigrants than do voters in the other early states. By contrast, New Hampshire Democrats are more liberal, particularly when it comes to gay marriage.
An overwhelming majority of likely Democratic voters in Iowa (87%) have a favorable impression of the party's presidential candidates. At this stage in 2004, 75% of likely Democratic caucus-goers expressed a positive view of the candidates. There has been an even larger increase in favorable opinions of the Democratic candidates in New Hampshire (from 59% to 76%). And in South Carolina, the proportion of Democrats expressing a positive opinion of the field has jumped from 39% to 68%.
In addition, while levels of strong support for the candidates are far higher than in December 2003, a large proportion of likely Democratic voters in the early states say they could imagine voting for any of the Democratic candidates in the primaries. About half of likely voters in Iowa (51%) say they would be comfortable casting their primary vote for any of the Democratic candidates who are running, as would 49% of those in New Hampshire and 57% in South Carolina. Among those who do rule out one or more candidates, Clinton is mentioned most often; 18% of likely Democratic voters in Iowa would not consider voting for her, and 15% in New Hampshire, say they absolutely would not vote for Clinton.
The survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press was conducted Nov. 7-25 among 460 voters likely to vote in the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses; 594 likely voters in New Hampshire's Jan. 8 Democratic primary; and 373 likely voters in South Carolina's Jan. 26 Democratic primary. In addition, a separate national survey was conducted among 467 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who say they are likely to vote in a primary or caucus in their state.