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Pew Research Center for the People & the Press
In GOP Primaries: Three Victors, Three Constituencies
Romney Gains Among Non-Evangelical Conservatives
The Republican nomination contest is being increasingly shaped by ideology and religion as it moves toward the Super Tuesday states on Feb. 5. John McCain has moved out to a solid lead nationally, increasing his support among Republican and GOP-leaning voters from 22% in late December to 29% currently. Mike Huckabee, at 20%, and Mitt Romney, with 17%, trail McCain. Rudy Giuliani is a distant fourth, polling just 13%. Giuliani's support has declined seven points since late December.
McCain's gains over this period have come almost entirely from moderate and liberal Republicans, among whom he now holds a two-to-one lead over his rivals.
The preferences of conservative Republicans are split along religious lines. Huckabee leads the field among conservative evangelicals, drawing 33% to 25% for McCain and just 12% for Romney. In the poll, conducted before the Michigan primary, Romney leads McCain and far outdistances Huckabee – and the rest of the GOP field – among non-evangelical conservative Republicans.
Giuliani's support among Republicans, as well as his personal image, has declined sharply in recent months. Currently, 13% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters support Giuliani, down from 26% in November. Favorable opinions of Giuliani also have eroded. In August, just 15% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters expressed an unfavorable opinion of Giuliani; that number nearly doubled in December (to 28%), and has risen to 36% in the current survey.
The Democratic nomination contest is being affected by different dynamics than the GOP race – class, race and gender – though ideology is a factor among the Democrats as well. Overall, Clinton leads Obama by 46% to 31%, with 13% for John Edwards. In late December, Clinton's lead over Obama was 20 points (46%-26%).
Obama has made substantial gains among higher-income Democratic voters. Currently, he leads Clinton by 44%-35% among Democratic voters with household incomes of at least $75,000 a year. In December, he trailed Clinton among Democratic voters in this group by 35%-31%. Clinton continues to hold a commanding lead among less well-off Democrats.
Obama now runs even with Clinton among liberals; he trailed by more than 20 points among liberals in late December (49% Clinton vs. 27% Obama). He also has made gains among African Americans and now holds a 52%-33% lead among black Democrats.
To voters, gender is being viewed as more of an issue for Clinton than race is for Obama. Roughly four-in-ten Democratic voters (43%), including comparable proportions of men and women, say that Clinton is being held to a higher standard because she is a woman. Just a quarter of Democrats (25%) say Obama is being held to a higher standard because he is black; about a third of black Democrats (32%) believe Obama is being held to a higher standard because of his race, compared with 23% of whites.
The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Jan. 9-13 among 1,515 adults, finds that the early primaries have had a decided impact on how voters in each party view which candidate has the best chance of winning the general election (this survey was conducted before the Jan.15 Michigan primary).
More than twice as many Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters say Obama has the best chance of winning than did so in November (35% now vs. 14% then). Clinton's advantage in electability now stands at a modest 46%-35%; two months ago, she held a 59%-14% advantage.
The shifts in Republican voters' views about candidate electability are even more striking. McCain is now clearly seen as the GOP candidate with the best chance of winning the general election; 42% believe he has the best chance of beating the Democratic nominee, compared with 16% in November. Giuliani's once sizable advantage in electability has disappeared over the past two months.
Candidate Ideology
As Republican voters look at the field of candidates running for their party's nomination, they see substantial ideological differences. Rudy Giuliani is perceived to be far more moderate than other leading candidates. Just 38% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters describe Giuliani as "conservative," while 40% say he is "moderate" and 22% describe him as "liberal."
By comparison, 50% of Republicans say John McCain is conservative, and roughly two-thirds describe both Mitt Romney (68%) and Mike Huckabee (65%) as conservative.
In this regard, both Romney and Huckabee come closer to how Republican voters describe themselves: 66% of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters think of themselves as conservative, while 29% say they are moderate and just 4% say they are liberal.
Many Democratic voters also see ideological differences between Clinton and Obama. Nearly half of Democrats (47%) describe Barack Obama as "liberal," compared with 38% who say the same about Hillary Clinton. And 29% think Clinton is "conservative," compared with 19% who say Obama is conservative. Clinton's average rating is somewhat more conservative, and Obama's is somewhat more liberal, than where Democratic voters typically place themselves. About a third of Democrats (34%) describe themselves as liberal, 44% as moderate, and 22% as conservative.
Republicans see both Clinton and Obama as far more liberal candidates than do Democrats. And also unlike Democrats, Republicans see Clinton as the more liberal of the two. Eight-in-ten Republican voters (81%) describe Clinton as liberal, with 42% saying that she is "very liberal". Obama is also thought of as a liberal candidate by most Republicans (70%), but substantially fewer describe him as "very liberal" compared with Clinton (24%).
While perceptions of Clinton and Obama are starkly different across party lines, the leading GOP candidates look more similar to both groups of voters. In general, Democratic voters give roughly the same ideological ratings to McCain, Huckabee and Romney as do Republican voters.