Pew Research Center for the People & the Press

Raising McCain

by Andrew Kohut, President, Pew Research Center
Special to the New York Times
January 25, 2008

Nearly lost in the blizzard of recent poll reports were the findings of a Gallup survey that the current Republican frontrunner, John McCain, might well give each of the two Democratic frontrunners a run for their money.

When Gallup asked 1,598 likely voters whom they'd back if the presidential election were held today, respondents chose Sen. McCain over Barack Obama by a 50 percent to 45 percent margin, and also preferred the Arizona senator to Hillary Clinton by a modest 50%-to 47% margin.

By contrast, the same survey went on to show both Senators Clinton and Obama easily besting Mike Huckabee in a general election. Sen. Obama was favored over Mr. Huckabee by 10 percentage points and Sen. Clinton by 6 percentage points.

So how seriously can we take a poll showing McCain running ahead or even with Obama and Clinton? While voters want change and favor the Democrats and their positions, a Republican candidate who is seen as an agent of change and not strongly associated with orthodox conservative beliefs could put up a strong challenge to a Democrat in November.

Read the full commentary at nytimes.com