Gay Marriage Is Back On The Radar For Republicans, Evangelicals

But Overall Opposition to Gay Marriage is Less Than in 2004

June 12, 2008

The balance of public opinion regarding gay marriage is more positive now than it was during the 2004 campaign. However, Republicans and white evangelical Protestants, in particular, remain staunchly opposed to allowing gays and lesbians to marry, and increasing numbers of Republicans and white evangelicals say that gay marriage will be very important in their voting decisions.

In the most recent People-Press survey, which was conducted May 21-25, 49% of Americans said they oppose allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry while 38% favored gay marriages. In July 2004, 56% opposed gay marriage, compared with 32% who supported legal marriages between gays and lesbians.

The survey, conducted shortly after a decision by California's Supreme Court overturning the state's ban on gay marriage, found that 28% of voters view gay marriage as a very important issue, somewhat fewer than did so near the end of the 2004 campaign (32% in October 2004). But gay marriage has increased in importance since October 2007 (22%), with most of this increase coming among Republicans, white evangelical Protestants and Catholics.

Currently, 41% of Republicans say gay marriage will be very important in their voting decisions, up 14 percentage points since last fall. Notably, about as many Republicans now view gay marriage as very important as did so at the end of the 2004 campaign (41% now vs. 39% then). Similarly, 49% of white evangelical Protestants view gay marriage as very important, up 10 points since last fall and identical to the percentage of white evangelicals who rated gay marriage as very important in October 2004.

A greater proportion of Catholic voters also view gay marriage as very important than did so last October (25% now vs. 14% in October 2007); in 2004, 19% of Catholic voters said gay marriage was very important. Nonetheless, just half as many Catholics as white evangelical Protestants rate gay marriage as a very important issue.

Gay marriage continues to rate as a far less important issue for Democrats than for Republicans. Just 22% of Democrats view gay marriage as very important, compared with 27% at the end of the last presidential campaign. In addition, only 17% of white mainline Protestants say gay marriage is very important, compared with 23% in October 2004.

While there is somewhat greater support for gay marriage than four years ago, overwhelming majorities of Republicans (75%) and white evangelical Protestants (81%) oppose allowing gays to marry, and about half in each group strongly opposes gay marriage (48% of Republicans, 54% of white evangelicals). Opinions about gay marriage in both groups are virtually unchanged from July 2004.

Strong opponents of gay marriage are far more likely than voters who oppose it less intensely, or those who favor gay marriage, to say it will be a very important factor in their voting decisions. Fully 55% of strong opponents of gay marriage say it is a very important issue, compared with 29% of strong supporters of gay marriage, and even smaller percentages of voters who favor or oppose gay marriage less strongly.

Trends on Gay Marriage, Civil Unions

Currently, 49% of Americans oppose gay marriage - the first time since the question was first asked more than a decade ago that a majority did not express opposition to gay marriage. Roughly four-in-ten (38%) favor gay marriage, which is little changed from recent years. During the 2004 campaign, opposition to gay marriage ranged from 56% to 63%, while support registered between 29% and 32%.

The current survey finds that a narrow majority of Americans (51%) favor legal agreements that would give gay couples many of the same rights as married couples; 41% oppose such civil unions. Two years ago, in July 2006, there was slightly more support for civil unions (54% favor vs. 42% oppose). During the 2004 campaign, somewhat smaller pluralities favored civil unions. In July 2004, for instance, 49% favored civil unions while 43% opposed such agreements.

Opposition Declines in Many Groups

There have been several notable changes in public attitudes toward gay marriage since the 2004 campaign. Women are now fairly evenly divided over whether gays and lesbians should be allowed to marry legally (41% favor vs. 46% oppose); in July 2004, just a third of women favored gay marriage while 56% were opposed.

A narrow majority of college graduates (51%) favor gay marriage compared with 38% who are opposed. Four years ago, a plurality of college graduates (46%) opposed gay marriage. White Catholics are now evenly divided about whether marriages between gays and lesbians should be permitted (44% favor, 44% oppose), a substantial shift since 2004 when 55% of white Catholics opposed gay marriage. Opposition to gay marriage among those ages 65 and older has declined by 10 points, though support has risen only slightly (by four points), as the proportion not offering an opinion has increased.

As noted, there has been virtually no decline in opposition among conservative Republicans and white evangelicals, who are much more likely than others to rate gay marriage as a very important issue in their vote. By contrast, liberal Democrats are more supportive of gay marriage than they were four years ago; fully three-quarters favor permitting gays and lesbians to wed legally (up from 63% in July 2004); 42% of liberal Democrats strongly favor gay marriage, up from 31% four years ago. But fewer than a quarter of liberal Democrats (23%) say that gay marriage will be a very important issue in their voting decision; that is slightly less than the percentage of liberal Democrats who rated gay marriage as very important in October 2004 (28%).

Views on Civil Unions

Public attitudes regarding civil unions for gay couples have not changed substantially since the 2004 presidential campaign. Currently, 51% say they favor allowing gay and lesbian couples to enter into legal agreements that would give them many of the same rights as married couples; 41% oppose such agreements.

There is less opposition toward civil unions than gay marriage in most major demographic and political groups. The differences in opinions are particularly striking among white non-Hispanic Catholics and moderate and liberal Republicans.

White non-Hispanic Catholics are split over whether gays should be allowed to marry legally; by more than two-to-one (64% to 30%), white non-Hispanic Catholics favor allowing gay couples to enter legal agreements that would grant them many of the same rights as married couples. And while a solid majority (57%) of moderate and liberal Republicans oppose gay marriage, just 42% oppose civil unions.

Liberal Democrats and young people - who express relatively positive opinions about gay marriage - have fairly comparable views of civil unions for gays. Liberal Democrats favor gay marriage by 75% to 22%, and civil unions by only a slightly larger margin (78% to 20%). People under age 30 favor gay marriage by 52% to 40%; they support civil unions by 58% to 37%.

Conversely, nearly as many African Americans oppose civil unions as oppose gay marriage. By more a margin of more than two-to-one (56% to 26%), more blacks oppose gay marriage than favor it. The balance of opinion among African Americans regarding civil unions is only modestly less negative (53% oppose vs. 34% favor).

For complete trends on public attitudes toward gay marriage and civil unions, see questions 34-35 in the topline questionnaire for the People-Press survey released May 29, 2008.