Public Opinion Polling Basics
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Just how does the general election exit poll work, anyway?
The firm that runs the presidential exit poll expects to interview about 100,000 voters across the country by the time the polls close on election night.
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Oversampling is used to study small groups, not bias poll results
As oversampling and its possible effect on presidential polls are spotlighted ahead of Election Day, learn more about this practice and how pollsters adjust for it.
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Cellphone Activity Flags
As telephone interviewing costs continue to rise and cellphones represent an increasing share of survey samples, survey researchers are exploring approaches to make these designs more cost-effective.
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Putting post-debate ‘flash polls’ into perspective
In the aftermath of presidential debates, there is intense interest in gauging “who won.” How can we know the answer to that question?
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5 key things to know about the margin of error in election polls
Some of the better-known statistical rules of thumb that a smart consumer might think apply in polls are more nuanced than they seem. In other words, as is so often the case in life, it’s complicated.
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Text Message Notification for Web Surveys
By Kyley McGeeney and H. Yanna Yan Text messaging has grown in popularity in recent years, leading survey researchers to explore ways texts might be used as tools in the public opinion research process. In the U.S., at least, researchers must obtain consent from respondents before they are permitted to send an automated text. This […]
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Flashpoints in Polling
Many people wonder: Can polls be trusted? The following essay contains a big-picture review of the state of polling, organized around a number of key areas.
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Moving Without Changing Your Cellphone Number: A Predicament for Pollsters
By Meredith Dost and Kyley McGeeney Each year about 36 million Americans move residences, according to the Census Bureau. And they quite often take their cellphone numbers with them. Others have not moved but bought their cellphone in a different state. The net result, according to new Pew Research Center estimates, is that 10% of […]
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The challenges of translating the U.S. census questionnaire into Arabic
In 2020, census questionnaires may for the first time be offered in Arabic, now the fastest-growing language in the U.S. But the Census Bureau faces a challenge not only in translating the language but also in adjusting the appearance of the questionnaire for those accustomed to reading and writing Arabic script.
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A Field Guide to Polling: Election 2020 Edition
While survey research in the United States is a year-round undertaking, the public’s focus on polling is never more intense than during the run-up to a presidential election.
Growing and Improving Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel
Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel (ATP) is now the Center’s principal source of data for U.S. public opinion research.
Comparing Survey Sampling Strategies: Random-Digit Dial vs. Voter Files
A new telephone survey experiment finds that an opinion poll drawn from a commercial voter file produces results similar to those from a sample based on random-digit dialing.
Are Telephone Polls Understating Support for Trump?
An experiment comparing responses to 27 questions fielded on both a telephone and a web survey found no significant mode differences in overall opinion about Trump or many of his signature policy positions.
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