Public Opinion Polling Basics
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Screening Likely Voters: A Survey Experiment
Introduction and Summary Traditionally, pollsters trying to accurately assess voter intentions have struggled with a basic problem — figuring out who actually is going to show up to vote. In the 2000 election campaign, sharp fluctuations in the Gallup Organization’s daily tracking poll were blamed by some on difficulties in nailing down likely voters. Similar […]
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No Consensus on the Census
Introduction and Summary Dramatic increases in both the size and ethnic diversity of America’s population, reflected in the 2000 census, are drawing a mixed reaction from the public. Consistent with a long-term rise in favorable attitudes toward immigrants, more people say today’s immigrants are better able to adapt to American life than did so four […]
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Possible Consequences of Non-Response for Pre-Election Surveys
Survey Findings Pre-election polling is tricky work. A number of unknown factors can stand in the way of accurate predictions — problems with identifying registered and likely voters, uncertainties about voter turnout, and last-minute shifts in candidate preference. But estimating voter preferences in biracial elections has been especially difficult. Pre-election surveys, even those taken just […]
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A Field Guide to Polling: Election 2020 Edition
While survey research in the United States is a year-round undertaking, the public’s focus on polling is never more intense than during the run-up to a presidential election.
Comparing Two Types of Online Survey Samples
Pew Research Center conducted a study to compare the accuracy of six online surveys of U.S. adults – three from probability-based panels and three from opt-in sources. On average, the absolute error on opt-in samples was about twice that of probability-based panels.
Q&A: What is the American Trends Panel, and how has it changed?
Members of the American Trends Panel can now take our surveys online or over the phone with an interviewer.
How Public Polling Has Changed in the 21st Century
A new study found that 61% of national pollsters used different methods in 2022 than in 2016. And last year, 17% of pollsters used multiple methods to sample or interview people – up from 2% in 2016.
© 2024 Pew Research Center