Voter Files

Publications

short readsFeb 6, 2018

Use of election forecasts in campaign coverage can confuse voters and may lower turnout

Probability forecasts have gained prominence in recent years. But these forecasts may confuse potential voters and may even lower the likelihood that they vote.
short readsMay 4, 2017

Q&A: Political polls and the 2016 election

Courtney Kennedy of Pew Research Center, who chaired survey researchers organization AAPOR’s task force on political polling in the 2016 U.S. elections, discuss the group’s findings and recommendations.
short readsNov 9, 2016

Why 2016 election polls missed their mark

There is a great deal of speculation but no clear answers as to the cause of the disconnect, but there is one point of agreement: Across the board, polls underestimated Trump’s level of support.
short readsNov 2, 2016

Just how does the general election exit poll work, anyway?

The firm that runs the presidential exit poll expects to interview about 100,000 voters across the country by the time the polls close on election night.
short readsMar 10, 2016

Many Americans say they voted, but did they?

One-in-six (16%) of those who say they “definitely voted” in the 2014 midterm election have no record of voting in commercially available national voter files.
reportJan 7, 2016

Can Likely Voter Models Be Improved?

High-profile polling failures in recent elections have drawn attention to the challenges in using surveys to predict outcomes. Our study examines various methods of determining who is a likely voter.