Can Likely Voter Models Be Improved?
High-profile polling failures in recent elections have drawn attention to the challenges in using surveys to predict outcomes. Our study examines various methods of determining who is a likely voter.
Election 2014
All
Election 2014
Publications
Filtering by:
Reset
-
-
Obama job rating flat after midterm losses, unlike Bush, Ike, Truman
President Obama’s approval rating has barely moved in over a year and remains at 43%. In fact, the share of Americans approving of Obama has wavered between 41% and 45% in 13 consecutive Pew Research surveys dating back to September 2013.
-
Little Enthusiasm, Familiar Divisions After the GOP’s Big Midterm Victory
Survey Report After a sweeping midterm election victory on Nov. 4, the Republican Party retook full control of Congress. But the public has mixed reactions to the GOP’s big win – much as it did four years ago, after Republicans gained control of the House though not the Senate. The post-election survey by the Pew […]
-
5 takeaways about the 2014 Latino vote
Would Latinos turn out to vote in greater numbers this year? Would the lack of action on immigration reform by President Obama and Congress depress voter turnout, or raise it? Here are five takeaways about Latino voters in this year’s midterm elections.
-
Hispanic Voters in the 2014 Election
Democrats maintained a large edge among Latinos voting in the midterm elections, but in some states, Republican candidates won more than 40% of the Latino vote.
-
How the Faithful Voted: 2014 Preliminary Analysis
Exit poll data from the 2014 midterm elections finds the GOP made inroads among some religious constituencies that traditionally have not been as supportive of Republican candidates.
-
As GOP celebrates win, no sign of narrowing gender, age gaps
The overall vote share is similar to the 2010 midterm elections, and many of the key demographic divides in 2010 — particularly wide gender and age gaps — remain.
-
Why measuring the demographics of voters on Election Day is difficult
The two primary sources that provide insight into voter demographics use different methodologies, are released at different times, and often produce slightly different results.
-
No matter how tight the race, midterm voter turnout likely to remain lackluster
If history is any guide, well under half of eligible voters will come out to vote in Tuesday’s midterms.
-
For most voters, congressional elections offer little drama
Most eligible voters — typically 8-in-ten or more — live in House districts with little or no real competition between candidates and parties.
REFINE YOUR SELECTION
Year
- 2016 (1)
- 2014 (21)
Date Range
- 2014
- 2015
- 2016
- 2014
- 2015
- 2016
Formats
Regions & Countries
Topics
Authors
- Jens Manuel Krogstad (5)
- Mark Hugo Lopez (5)
- Drew DeSilver (4)
- Seth Motel (2)
- Aaron Smith (1)
- Ana Gonzalez-Barrera (1)
- Andrew Kohut (1942-2015) (1)
- Eileen Patten (1)
- Jocelyn Kiley (1)
Research Teams
- Politics (13)
- Global Migration and Demography (5)
- Race and Ethnicity (4)
- Internet and Technology (3)
- Methods (3)
- Religion (3)
- Social Trends (3)
- Data Labs (2)
- Global (2)
- Journalism (2)
- Pew Research Center (2)
- Science (2)
© 2024 Pew Research Center