by Pamela M. Prah, Stateline.org
This year’s sweepstakes for 36 governors’ seats is shaping up as one for the history books. Democrats appear poised to reverse 12 years of growing Republican gubernatorial power. Massachusetts could place in office the second elected black governor in U.S. history. And Alaska, Illinois or Nevada could put a woman at the helm for the first time.
This also is the year the issue of illegal immigration burst into governors’ campaigns, not just in the border states of Arizona, California and Texas, but also in states such as Arkansas, Colorado, Nevada, Oklahoma and Tennessee.
While the war in Iraq, President Bush’s sagging popularity and Republican scandals dominate races for the U.S. Congress, the homespun issues of taxes and education are the crux of a majority of contests for governor.
Still, a tinge of Washington, D.C., is following gubernatorial candidates to the polls in a quarter of the races. Not counting incumbent governors, eight current and two former U.S. congressmen are making bids to step into the governor’s mansion at a time of record-low approval of the U.S. House and Senate.
A state-by-state synopsis of the 36 gubernatorial elections, prepared with help from reporters in state capitols, yields these and other emerging trends in the biggest year for governors’ races of the four-year election cycle. The state-by-state summaries also are available on Stateline.org’s updated Interactive Elections Guide under the “Who’s running?’ section. Or, click here for a one-page printable PDF guide to all 36 races.
For the first time since 1994, Democrats appear in reach of taking a majority of the nation’s governorships. Currently, Republicans command a 28-to-22 advantage in the nation’s governor’s suites.
Republican governors headed into 2006 with a mathematical disadvantage: Twenty-two of the governor’s posts on the Nov. 7 ballot are held by Republicans, while Democrats hold 14. And nine of 10 open gubernatorial seats, in which no incumbent is running, are currently in GOP hands.
Democrats appear in reach of flipping control of the governor’s office in Arkansas, Colorado, Massachusetts, New York and Ohio — where Republican governors are not running again. In addition, Republican Govs. Robert Ehrlich Jr. of Maryland and Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota are struggling to hang on to their seats.
But Republicans are competing hard against Democratic incumbents who are far from shoo-ins, including Govs. John Baldacci of Maine, Jim Doyle of Wisconsin, Jennifer Granholm of Michigan, and Ted Kulongoski of Oregon.
Texas has probably the zaniest contest in which Gov. Rick Perry (R) faces four opponents, including singer and mystery writer Kinky Friedman. The Democratic contender, former U.S. Rep. Chris Bell, has asked Friedman to drop out of the race, arguing that the independent candidate known for his colorful jokes and ever-present unlighted cigar will siphon off votes for Bell and give Perry the win with only a third of votes cast.
Massachusetts has the only race in the country between an African American and a woman. Democrat Deval Patrick, a former Clinton administration civil rights official, currently is polling ahead of Republican Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey in a traditionally Democratic state.
A former governor, Tony Knowles (D) of Alaska, is trying to return to the post he held in 1994 and 1998, but he will have to beat Republican Sarah Palin, a former two-term mayor of a small city who toppled embattled Gov. Frank Murkowski in the Republican primary.
And in a peculiar ballot switch, the current governor in Idaho, Republican Jim Risch, is running for his old job back as lieutenant governor rather than challenge former U.S. Rep. C.L. “Butch’ Otter (R) for the state’s top job. Risch moved up when Gov. Dirk Kempthorne (R) was tapped to head the U.S. Department of the Interior.
Surpluses, and how incumbent governors spent them in 2006, are issues in governors’ races in Arkansas and Wyoming at a time when all but a handful of states finally emerged from years of belt-tightening and counting pennies. Jump-starting the economy and creating more jobs are dominant themes not just in the Rust Belt states of Michigan and Ohio, but also in Kansas, Maine, Rhode Island and South Carolina.
Ethics stand out in several campaigns, including the race in Illinois where Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) is dogged by federal and state probes of his administration; in Alaska, where the FBI is investigating state politicians for influence-peddling; and in Wisconsin, where a state procurement official was convicted in a case involving a campaign contributor to Doyle, the governor.
Nationally, the housing market may have cooled, but property taxes still are hot issues in governors’ races in Florida, Idaho, New York, Pennsylvania and Vermont, while more funding for schools is prominent in Arkansas, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Oregon.
“October surprises’ have rattled some campaigns. In Nevada, U.S. Rep. Jim Gibbons, the Republican candidate for governor, has denied accusations that he assaulted and propositioned a cocktail waitress after a night of drinking. And in Colorado, the FBI is investigating whether a federal immigration official illegally tapped into a confidential crime database to provide information to GOP gubernatorial candidate, U.S. Rep. Bob Beauprez. The information ended up in a TV ad attacking the Democratic challenger, Bob Ritter, the former Denver district attorney. Beauprez has denied wrongdoing.
