Most voters express confidence that the 2022 elections in the United States – particularly elections in their local community – will be run and administered well. And confidence in election administration across the country is higher than in the run-up to the 2020 presidential election, though it remains lower than it was heading into the 2018 midterm.
An overwhelming majority of registered voters (90%) express confidence that elections in their community will be run and administered well, including 48% who say that they will be administered very well and 43% who say somewhat well. These shares are comparable to the shares that expressed confidence in 2020 and 2018.
While a greater share of voters are at least somewhat confident about the administration of elections in the United States than in 2020 (70% vs. 62%), fewer voters express confidence today than in 2018 (when 81% were very or somewhat confident).
Voters who plan to vote for or lean toward Democratic congressional candidates in their districts this year are significantly more likely than GOP voters to say that they think elections across the country this year will be administered well.
Today, a 56% majority of Republican supporters say they think elections in the U.S. will be administered very (11%) or somewhat (45%) well. GOP voters’ evaluations of election administration in the U.S. this year is modestly higher than the 50% of Trump supporters who said the 2020 elections would be well-administered in October of that year. However, GOP views of election administration today are far lower than in the run up to the 2018 election: 87% of Republican supporters expressed confidence in the administration of U.S. elections in 2018.
In contrast, nearly nine-in-ten Democratic candidate supporters (88%) say that U.S. elections will be administered at least somewhat well this year, greater than the share of Biden supporters saying this about the elections in 2020 (72%) and of Democratic congressional supporters in 2018 (79%). The share of Democratic supporters that say the elections this year will be administered very well is at least 15 percentage points higher than the share that said this about each of these previous elections (35% today vs. 20% in 2020 and 18% in 2018).
Conservative Republican supporters are less likely than moderates and liberals backing GOP candidates to say they think elections across the country will be administered well this year. A slim majority (53%) of conservative GOP backers say elections will be administered well, with nearly as many (47%) saying they will not be.
By comparison, about two-thirds of moderates and liberals who are supporting Republican candidates (66%) say they think U.S. elections will be administered at least somewhat well this year, while roughly a third (34%) say they will be administered not too or not at all well.
Democratic supporters, regardless of their ideological leanings, broadly say that they think elections in the U.S. will be administered very or somewhat well this November.
Partisan differences are less pronounced on evaluations of local election administration. Overwhelming majorities of voters supporting Democrats (96%) and Republicans (89%) say they expect that elections in their community will be administered at least somewhat well this year. Still, Democratic candidate supporters are 20 percentage points more likely to say elections will be administered very well locally (61% vs. 41%).
While overwhelming majorities across racial and ethnic groups expect that elections in their local community will be administered at least somewhat well, roughly half of White voters (51%) say they think elections in their community will be administered very well. By comparison, about four-in-ten Black, Hispanic and Asian voters say this.
More than two-thirds of voters across racial and ethnic groups say that elections in the nation will be administered at least somewhat well, though Black voters are more likely to say this than White voters (79% vs. 69%).
Younger voters are less likely than older voters to say elections in their community will be administered very well. Among voters ages 18 to 29, 37% say they think the elections will be administered very well locally, compared with 57% of voters 65 and older.
While Democratic candidate supporters are generally confident that elections in their community will be administered well, White Democrats are more likely than Black or Hispanic Democrats to express a high degree of confidence that elections will be administered very well in their community this year.
Nine-in-ten or more White (98%), Black (93%) and Hispanic (92%) Democratic supporters say election administration will be handled at least somewhat well in their community this year. However, 70% of White Democratic voters say elections in their local community will be administered very well, while about half of Black (47%) and Hispanic Democratic voters (49%) say the same. There is substantially less variation by race and ethnicity in Democratic supporters’ expectations for how elections around the country will be administered.
Confidence in poll workers, state election officials lower than in the past – particularly among GOP voters
Voters are confident that poll workers in their community will do a good job during the elections this November – 89% say they are at least somewhat confident, including 46% who are very confident. While voters express a lower level of confidence in state officials who run elections to do a good job, a clear majority – about three-quarters (77%) – say they are somewhat confident in these officials, including 30% who are very confident.
While majorities of both Democratic and Republican voters are at least somewhat confident in local poll workers (96% and 87%, respectively), voters who support Democratic candidates are 21 percentage points more likely than those who support Republicans to say they are very confident (60% vs. 39%).
When it comes to views of state election officials, there also are differences between Democratic and Republican voters: 74% of Republican voters and 87% of Democratic voters say they are at least somewhat confident that state officials will do a good job in the November elections. However, Democratic candidate supporters are about twice as likely as Republican supporters (44% vs. 22%) to say they are very confident in these officials.
While wide majorities of both Republican (87%) and Democratic (96%) supporters say they are at least somewhat confident in poll workers in their communities to do a good job in this year’s elections, just 39% of voters who back GOP candidates say they are very confident in their community’s poll workers, down from 60% in 2018.
By comparison, 60% of voters who back Democrats are very confident their local poll workers will do a good job – up 10 percentage points since 2018.
A similar pattern is evident in views of state election officials: Roughly three-quarters of Republican supporters (74%) say they are confident in officials who run elections in their states, compared with 87% who said this of state election officials in 2018. And just 22% say they are very confident in these officials today, down from 37% in 2018.
In contrast, overall confidence in state election officials among voters supporting Democrats is little different today than it was four years ago. And the share of Democrats saying they are very confident in officials who run elections in their state is higher today (44%) than it was in 2018 (33%).
Voters are generally confident that election officials in their state will do a good job running the election, but confidence in state election officials is higher among those who live in states where the government is controlled by their own party.
Republican voters in states with a Republican governor and a GOP-controlled state legislature are much more likely than Republicans in Democratic-controlled states (86% vs. 48%) to say they are at least somewhat confident that officials who run elections in their state will do a good job.
There is a similar pattern among Democratic voters: Those in states where Democrats hold the governorship and the state legislature are more confident in their state election officials than Democrats in GOP-controlled states (90% vs. 83%).
Yet supporters of Democratic congressional candidates in Democratic-controlled states are more confident in their state’s election officials than Republican voters in Republican-controlled states are in their officials: 90% of Democratic supporters in Democratic-controlled states are at least somewhat confident in their state’s elected officials, including 54% who are very confident. By contrast, 86% of Republican supporters in GOP-controlled states are at least somewhat confident in their state’s officials, but just 29% say they are very confident.
And among those voters living in states controlled by the opposing party, Democratic candidate supporters are far more confident in their state’s election officials than GOP voters are in theirs: 83% of Democratic voters in GOP-controlled states are at least somewhat confident in officials who run elections in their state, including 29% who are very confident. In comparison, just 48% of GOP supporters in Democratic-controlled states express at least some confidence in their state’s election officials, including only 12% who say they are very confident.
GOP confidence in absentee ballot counts remains low, as confidence in votes cast in person declines
More than eight-in-ten voters (84%) are at least somewhat confident that votes cast in person at polling places will be counted as voters intend in this year’s elections. This is somewhat lower than the 92% of voters who expressed confidence that in-person ballots would be correctly counted in the weeks before the 2020 election.
This change has been driven by Republican supporters: Currently, 79% of voters who back Republican congressional candidates say they are very or somewhat confident that votes cast in person will be counted as voters intend, but just 26% are very confident. Two years ago, 92% of Trump supporters were at least somewhat confident that in-person votes would be counted accurately, with nearly half (48%) saying they were very confident.
Democratic candidate supporters’ confidence that votes cast in person will be counted correctly is about the same as it was at this point in 2020 (95% of Democratic voters are at least somewhat confident in the counts of in-person ballots, including 55% who are very confident).
At the same time, Republican supporters’ confidence in absentee and mail-in ballots remains low, as was the case going into the 2020 election. Fewer than four-in-ten voters who back GOP candidates (37%) are at least somewhat confident in the accuracy of the vote count for absentee and mail-in ballots, on par with the share of Trump supporters who said this in October 2020 (36%).
Democratic voters express a far higher level of confidence in the vote counts for absentee ballots, and the share saying this today is higher than it was among Biden voters in 2020: 88% are at least somewhat confident, including 43% who are very confident. In October 2020, 77% of Biden backers were at least somewhat confident, with 30% saying they were very confident.
Absentee voters express higher confidence in mail-in balloting
Confidence that in-person ballots cast at polling places will be counted as voters intend varies little between those who themselves plan to vote in this way and those who plan to vote absentee or by mail. More than eight-in-ten voters who plan to vote in person on Election Day (84%), in person early (86%) or by mail (91%) say they are at least somewhat confident in-person votes will be counted accurately. There are no major differences in confidence across mode of voting within either Republican supporters or Democratic supporters.
In-person voters, however, are much less confident that absentee or mail-in ballots will be counted accurately than voters who plan to vote this way themselves. While 86% of those who plan to vote or already have voted by mail say they are very (41%) or somewhat confident (45%) these ballots will be counted accurately, only half of those who plan to vote in person on Election Day say the same. About six-in-ten voters who plan to vote or have already voted in person before Nov. 8 (62%) are confident in absentee vote counts.
In-person voters among supporters of both parties’ candidates are less confident in absentee ballots being counted accurately, but the difference is particularly stark among Republican supporters. Most GOP supporters who plan to vote or have already voted by mail-in ballot (69%) are confident these ballots will be counted accurately, while only about three-in-ten Republican supporters who plan to vote in person or have already done so say the same (29% of Election Day voters and 33% of early voters). While Democratic supporters overall are confident mail-in ballots will be counted accurately, the share who are at least somewhat confident is higher among those planning to vote by mail (94% very or somewhat confident) compared with those voting in person on Nov. 8 or earlier (83% each).
