This is the 15th time Pew Research Center has measured restrictions on religion around the globe.12 This report, which includes data for the year ending Dec. 31, 2022, generally follows the same methodology as previous reports.
Pew Research Center uses two 10-point indexes – the Government Restrictions Index (GRI) and the Social Hostilities Index (SHI) – to rate 198 countries and self-governing territories on their levels of restrictions.13 This report analyzes changes in restrictions on an annual basis, focusing on the 2022 calendar year.
The study categorizes the direction and degree of change in each country’s scores in two ways: numerically and by percentile. First, countries are grouped into categories depending on the size of the numeric change in their scores from year to year on the two indexes: changes of 2 points or more in either direction, changes of at least 1 point but less than 2 points, changes of less than 1 point, or no change at all (refer to the chart at right).
Changes in overall levels of restrictions are calculated for each country by comparing its scores on both indexes (the GRI and the SHI) from year to year. When a country’s scores on the GRI and the SHI changed in the same direction (both increased or both decreased), the greater amount of change determines the category. For instance, if the country’s GRI score increased by 0.8 and its SHI score increased by 1.5, the country was put into the overall “1.0-1.9 increase” category. When a country’s score increased on one index but decreased on the other, the difference between the amounts of change determines the grouping. For example, if the country’s GRI score increased by 2.0 and its SHI score decreased by 1.5, the country went into the overall “0.1-0.9 increase” category. When a country’s score on one index stayed the same, the amount of change on the other index was used to assign the category.
Second, this report categorizes the levels of government restrictions and social hostilities in each country by percentiles. As the benchmark, it uses the results from the baseline year of the study (the year ending in mid-2007). Scores in the top 5% on each index in mid-2007 were categorized as “very high.” The next highest 15% of scores were categorized as “high” and the following 20% were categorized as “moderate.” The bottom 60% of scores were categorized as “low.”
Refer to the table to the right for the index score thresholds as determined from the mid-2007 data. These thresholds are applied to all subsequent years of data.
Overview of procedures
The methodology used by the Center to assess and compare restrictions on religion was developed by Brian J. Grim, former Pew Research Center senior researcher and director of cross-national data, in consultation with other Center staff members, building on a methodology that Grim and Professor Roger Finke developed while at Penn State University’s Association of Religion Data Archives.14 The goal was to devise quantifiable, objective and transparent measures of the extent to which governments and societal groups impinge on the practice of religion. The findings were used to rate countries and self-governing territories on two indexes that are reproducible and can be periodically updated.
This research goes beyond previous efforts to assess restrictions on religion in several ways. First, the Center coded (categorized and counted) data from more than a dozen published cross-national sources, providing a high degree of confidence in the findings. Pew Research Center coders looked to the sources for only specific, well-documented facts, not opinions or commentary.
Second, Center staff used extensive data-verification checks that reflect generally accepted best practices for such studies, such as double-blind coding (coders do not see each other’s ratings), inter-rater reliability assessments (checking for consistency among coders) and carefully monitored protocols to reconcile discrepancies among coders.
Third, the coding took into account whether the perpetrators of religion-related violence were government or private actors. The coding also identified how widespread and intensive the restrictions were in each country.
Fourth, one of the most valuable contributions of the indexes and the questions used to construct them (read the section on the coding instrument later in the Methodology) is their ability to chart change over time.
Countries and territories
The 198 countries and territories covered by the study contain more than 99.5 of the world’s population. They include 192 of the 193 member states of the United Nations as of 2022, plus six territories – Kosovo, Hong Kong, Macao, the Palestinian territories, Taiwan and Western Sahara.15 Reporting on these territories does not imply any position on what their international political status should be, only recognition that the de facto situations in these territories require separate analysis.
Although the 198 countries and territories vary widely in size, population, wealth, ethnic diversity, religious makeup and form of government, the study does not attempt to adjust for such differences. Poor countries are not scored differently on the indexes than wealthy ones. Countries with diverse ethnic and religious populations are not “expected” to have more social hostilities than countries with more homogeneous populations. And democracies are not assessed more leniently or harshly than authoritarian regimes.
Western Sahara coding
Western Sahara is considered a non-self-governing territory by the United Nations. Morocco administers part of the territory using the Moroccan Constitution and its laws, including laws affecting religious freedom.16 As a consequence, this report considers the policies and actions of the Moroccan government when assessing government restrictions on religion in Western Sahara. The government restrictions coding reflects Morocco’s de facto control over parts of Western Sahara and is not intended as a Pew Research Center position on the status of the territory. When researchers evaluate social hostilities involving religion, Western Sahara and Morocco are coded separately.
Information sources
In the latest year of the study, Pew Research Center identified 19 widely available, frequently cited sources of information on government restrictions and social hostilities involving religion around the world. This study includes four sources that were not used in the baseline report on religious restrictions. (Read the section below for more details on the new information sources.)
The primary and secondary sources, which are listed below, include reports from U.S. government agencies, several independent, nongovernmental organizations, and a variety of European and UN bodies. Although most of these organizations are based in Western countries, many of them depend on local staff to collect information across the globe. As previously noted, the Center did not use the commentaries, opinions or normative judgments of the sources; the sources were combed only for factual information on specific policies and actions.
Primary and secondary sources for 2022
- Country constitutions
- U.S. State Department annual Reports on International Religious Freedom
- U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom annual reports
- UN Special Rapporteur on Freedom of Religion or Belief reports
- Human Rights First reports in first and second years of coding; Freedom House reports in subsequent years of coding
- Human Rights Watch topical reports
- International Crisis Group country reports and database
- United Kingdom Foreign & Commonwealth Office annual reports on human rights
- Council of the European Union annual reports on human rights
- United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees reports
- U.S. State Department annual Country Reports on Terrorism
- Anti-Defamation League reports
- U.S. State Department Country Reports on Human Rights Practices
- Uppsala University’s Uppsala Conflict Data Program, Armed Conflict Database
- Human Rights Without Frontiers “Freedom of Religion or Belief” newsletters
- Amnesty International Country Profiles
- United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees Population Statistics Database
- The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre’s Global Internal Displacement Database
- FBI Hate Crime Reports (for information on the situation in the United States)
- American Civil Liberties Union (for information on the situation in the United States)
As noted, this study includes three sources that were not included in Pew Research Center’s first report on global restrictions on religion: Freedom House reports, Uppsala University’s Armed Conflict Database, and the “Freedom of Religion or Belief” newsletters from Human Rights Without Frontiers.
The Freedom House reports titled “Freedom in the World” have replaced Human Rights First reports, which have not been updated since mid-2008. Researchers also began using “Freedom on the Net” reports by Freedom House starting with 2019 data to code for restrictions on religious groups that occur through the internet. The Uppsala Armed Conflict Database provides information on the number of people affected by religion-related armed conflicts, supplementing other sources. The Human Rights Without Frontiers “Freedom of Religion or Belief” newsletters have replaced the Hudson Institute’s “Religious Freedom in the World” publication by Paul Marshall, which has not been updated since its release in 2008. Human Rights Without Frontiers is a nongovernmental organization based in Brussels that has affiliated offices throughout the world.
In 2021 and 2022, researchers consulted a comprehensive list of religious freedom cases in U.S. courts, which was compiled by the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU). However, the Center did not include the ACLU’s opinions or positions on these cases in the coding for the U.S.
A note on previous sources that were unavailable in 2022
Between 2013 and 2020, Pew Research Center used data from the Global Terrorism Database, maintained by the University of Maryland’s National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) to code and categorize information on religion-related terrorism. This data was not available at the time researchers collected information for the current report covering 2022 events. To analyze religion-related terrorism for the report on 2022 data, the Center used information from its usual annual sources, including the International Crisis Group’s CrisisWatch Database, the U.S. State Department’s annual “Country Reports on Terrorism,” along with its annual “International Religious Freedom” reports and “Country Reports on Human Rights Practices.” Researchers also used annual reports from Freedom House, Amnesty International, the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom and Human Rights Watch. (One source used in earlier reports, the U.S. government’s Worldwide Incident Tracking System, or WITS, is no longer available online.) Prior to 2013, the report relied only on the International Crisis Group reports, Uppsala University’s Armed Conflict Database and the U.S. State Department reports for information on religion-related terrorism.
In most years, Pew Research Center has included Amnesty International’s country profiles as one of the sources used for this study. These profiles were not updated for the year 2018, so they are absent as a source for the report covering 2018 events. Amnesty International reports were used for this report covering 2022 events, however.
The study also has used the U.S. Department of Justice’s “Religious Freedom in Focus” newsletters and reports to code information for the United States in most years. These reports were not available for 2021 and 2022. The U.S. State Department’s “Report on International Religious Freedom” was unavailable for Western Sahara in 2020, 2021 and 2022.
While some of the changes in religious restrictions noted in this study could reflect the use of more up-to-date and/or better informational sources, Pew Research Center staff monitor the impact of source information variability each year and have found no evidence of overall informational bias. (For additional discussion, read the “Potential biases” section in the 2014 report, “Religious Hostilities Reach Six-Year High.”)
The coding instrument
As explained in more detail below, Pew Research Center staff developed a battery of questions similar to a survey questionnaire. Coders consulted the primary and secondary sources in order to answer the questions separately for each country. While the U.S. State Department’s annual “Reports on International Religious Freedom” generally contained the most comprehensive information, the other sources provided additional factual detail that was used to settle ambiguities, resolve contradictions and help in the proper scoring of each question.
The questionnaire, or coding instrument, generated a set of numerical measures on restrictions in each country. It also made it possible to see how government restrictions intersect with broader social tensions and incidents of violence or intimidation by private actors. The coding instrument with the list of questions used for this report is shown in the summary of results.
The coding process required the coders to check all the sources for each country. Coders determined whether each source provided information critical to assigning a score; had supporting information but did not result in new facts; or had no available information on that particular country. Multiple sources of information were available for all countries and territories with populations greater than 1 million. Most of the countries and territories analyzed by the Center had multiple sources; only small (predominantly island) countries had a single source, namely the U.S. State Department reports.
Coding the U.S. presented a special problem since it is not included in the U.S. State Department’s annual “Reports on International Religious Freedom.” Accordingly, Pew Research Center coders also looked at reports from the U.S. Department of Justice and the FBI on violations of religious freedom in the U.S., in addition to consulting all the primary and secondary sources, including reports by the United Nations, Human Rights Watch, Freedom House, the International Crisis Group and the UK Foreign & Commonwealth Office, many of which contain data on the U.S.
The coding process
Pew Research Center employed strict training and rigorous coding protocols to make its coding as objective and reproducible as possible. Coders worked directly under an experienced researcher’s supervision, with additional direction and support provided by other Center researchers. The coders underwent an intensive training period that included a thorough overview of the research objectives, information sources and methodology.
Countries were double-blind coded by two coders (coders did not see each other’s ratings), and the initial ratings were entered into an electronic document (coding instrument) including details on each incident. The coders began by filling out the coding instrument for each country using the information source that had the most comprehensive information. The protocol for each coder was to answer every question on which information was available in the initial source. Once a coder had completed that process, they then turned to the other sources. As new information was found, this was also coded and the source duly noted. Whenever ambiguities or contradictions arose, the source providing the most detailed, clearly documented evidence was used.
After two coders had separately completed the coding instrument for a particular country, their scores were compared by a research analyst. Areas of discrepancy were discussed at length with the coders and were reconciled in order to arrive at a single score on each question for each country. The data for each country was then combined into a master file, and the answers and substantiating evidence were entered into a database.
After data collection for all countries was completed, Pew Research Center coders and researchers compared the scores from calendar year 2022 with those from the previous year, ending Dec. 31, 2021. They identified scores that had changed and analyzed the substantiating evidence for each year to make sure the change was substantive and not the result of coder error. Throughout this process, the coding instrument itself was continually monitored for possible defects. The questions were designed to be precise, comprehensive and objective so that, based on the same data and definitions, the coding could be reliably reproduced by others with the same results. At the same time, the Center has attempted to minimize changes to the coding instrument as much as possible to ensure all changes between years are the result of actual changes in restrictions and hostilities, not changes in methodology.
Pew Research Center staff generally found few cases in which one source contradicted another. When contradictions did arise – such as when sources provided differing estimates of the number of people displaced due to religion-related violence – the source that cited the most specific documentation was used. The coders were instructed to disregard broad, unsubstantiated generalizations regarding abuses and to focus on reports that contained clear, precise documentation and factual details, such as names, dates and places where incidents occurred.
Pew Research Center staff compared coders’ scores for all questions for each of the 198 countries and territories included in the study, computing the degree to which the scores matched. The inter-rater reliability score across all variables was 0.73. Scores near or above 0.7 are generally considered good.
The data verification procedures went beyond the inter-rater reliability statistics. They also involved comparing the answers on the main measures for each country with other closely related questions in the dataset. This provided a practical way to test the internal reliability of the data.
In previous years, Pew Research Center staff also checked the reliability of the coded data by comparing it with similar, though more limited, religious restrictions datasets. In particular, published government and social regulation of religion index scores are available from the Association of Religion Data Archives (for three years of data) and the Hudson Institute (for one year of data), which makes them ideal measures for cross-validation. The review process found very few significant discrepancies in the coded data; changes were made only if warranted by a further review of the primary and secondary sources.
Restriction of religion indexes
The Government Restrictions Index (GRI) is based on 20 indicators of ways that national and local governments restrict religion, including through coercion and force. The Social Hostilities Index (SHI) is based on 13 indicators of ways in which private individuals and social groups infringe upon religious beliefs and practices, including religiously biased crimes, mob violence and efforts to stop particular religious groups from growing or operating. The study also counted the number and types of documented incidents of religion-related violence, including terrorism and armed conflict.
Government Restrictions Index
Coding multiple indicators makes it possible to construct a Government Restrictions Index of sufficient gradation to allow for meaningful cross-national comparisons. An additional advantage of using multiple indicators is that it helps mitigate the effects of measurement error in any one variable, providing greater confidence in the overall measure.
Pew Research Center coded 20 indicators of government restrictions on religion (refer to the summary of results). These 20 items were added together to create the GRI. In two cases, these items represent an aggregation of several closely related questions: Measures of five types of physical abuses are combined into a single variable (GRI Q.19), and seven questions measuring aspects of government favoritism are combined into an overall favoritism scale (GRI Q.20 is a summary variable showing whether a country received the maximum score on one or more of the seven questions).
The GRI is a fine-grained measure created by adding the 20 items on a scale of 0.0 to 10.0, with 0.0 indicating very low levels of government restrictions on religion and 10 indicating very high levels of restrictions. The 20 questions that form the GRI are coded in a standard scale from 0.0 to 1.0 point, while gradations among the answers allowed for partial points to be given for lesser degrees of the particular government restriction being measured. The overall value of the index was calculated and proportionally adjusted – so that it had a maximum value of 10.0 and a possible range of 0.0 to 10.0 – by dividing the sum of the variables by two.
A test of whether the 20 items were statistically reliable as a single index produced a scale reliability coefficient of 0.90 for calendar year 2022. Since coefficients of 0.7 or higher are generally considered acceptable, it was statistically appropriate to combine these 20 items into a single index.
Social Hostilities Index
In addition to government restrictions, violence and intimidation in societies also can limit religious beliefs and practices. Accordingly, Pew Research Center staff tracked more than a dozen indicators of social impediments on religion. Once again, coding multiple indicators made it possible to construct an index that shows gradations of severity or intensity and allows for comparisons among countries. The summary of results contains the 13 items used by Center staff to create the Social Hostilities Index.
The SHI was constructed by adding together the 13 indicators based on a scale of 0.0 to 10.0, with 0.0 indicating very low impediments to religious beliefs and practices, and 10.0 indicating very high impediments. The various questions that form the index are coded in a standard scale from 0.0 to 1.0 point, while gradations among the answers allow for partial points to be given for lesser degrees of the particular hostilities being measured. The indicators were added together and set to have a possible range of 0.0 to 10.0 by dividing the sum of the variables by 1.3.
As with the Government Restrictions Index, various types of violence and intimidation were combined. A test of whether these 13 items were statistically reliable as a single index produced a scale reliability coefficient of 0.87. Since coefficients of 0.7 or higher are generally considered acceptable, it was statistically appropriate to combine these items into a single index.
How examples are coded
Examples of each type of government restriction or social hostility are generally counted in a single measure on the GRI or SHI. For instance, a restriction on proselytizing (sharing one’s faith with the intent of persuading another to join the faith) is not also counted as a restriction on conversion (an individual changing their religion). In some situations, however, an individual restriction or hostility may be part of a broader set of restrictions or hostilities. For instance, a mob attack by members of one religious group on an individual of another religion may be an isolated event, counted only under question SHI Q.2: “Was there mob violence related to religion?” However, if such an attack triggers repeated attacks between religious groups, it also might be an indication of sectarian or communal violence, which by definition involves two or more religious groups facing off in repeated clashes. In such a case, the mob attack also would be counted under question SHI Q.3: “Were there acts of sectarian or communal violence between religious groups?” (Refer to the summary of results.)
For a number of questions on the Social Hostilities Index (SHI. Q.6, Q.7, Q.8, Q.9, Q.10, Q.11, Q.12 and Q.13), coders look at incidents in the U.S. State Department’s “International Religious Freedom” reports from the previous two calendar years to capture ongoing social hostilities in a country.
Social harassment and intimidation coding
Beginning with data for 2017, researchers updated the way social harassment and intimidation of religion is calculated. There are six components that encompass question SHI Q.1.a: “Were there crimes, malicious acts or violence motivated by religious hatred or bias?” The six components include harassment/intimidation, property damage, detentions/abductions, displacement from homes, physical assaults and deaths (refer to the summary of results). For the “harassment/intimidation” measure, researchers made an update to count “limited” harassment as 0.5 points and “widespread” harassment as 1.0 point for data covering 2017 onward. “Limited” means infrequent or isolated and indicates that the harassment seems unlikely to continue. “Widespread” does not necessarily mean the whole country, but it could be present in certain regions, have potential of spreading to other regions, affect several groups, indicate a substantial uptick in the number of cases of abuse, or indicate a possible campaign against a certain religion(s) or practice(s).
The other five components of SHI.Q.1.a are coded as “Yes” (1.o point) or “No” (0.0 points) based on whether incidents in each subcategory occurred. Compared with the previous method, this update to coding “limited” and “widespread” intimidation and harassment resulted in a change of no more than 0.1 points to the SHI score of 53 countries in 2017.
Effects of consolidating to a new database
For the first few years of this study, information on the number, types and locations of incidents of government force and social violence toward religious groups, as well as deference to religious authorities in matters of law, were coded at the province level. (Refer to the example of data coding on pages 45-48 of the December 2009 baseline report.) Each year, the province numbers were summed and put into separate country-level files. Following the publication of the August 2011 report, Pew Research Center staff created a database that integrated all province- and country-level data on religious restrictions. During this process, Center staff reviewed any discrepancies between province files and the sums that had been transferred to the country files and made appropriate corrections. The adjustments made were relatively minor and had small effects on index scores for countries, on average less than 0.005 on the 10-point indexes. Consolidating the data into a database also entailed a review of the data on harassment of religious groups. In particular, instances of harassment from the year ending in mid-2007 were stored as open-ended questions, and in a few cases, they were recoded to match the categories used in subsequent years.
Beginning with data covering 2012, Pew Research Center stopped collecting data at the province level; all data was coded at the country level.
Changing time period of analysis
This is the 12th time Pew Research Center has analyzed restrictions on religion in a calendar year. Previous reports analyzed 12-month periods from July 1 to June 30 (e.g., July 1, 2009-June 30, 2010). The shift to calendar years was made in part because most of the primary and secondary sources used in this study are based on calendar years.
Because of the shift in time frame, previous studies did not report directly on incidents that occurred during the period from July 1 to Dec. 31, 2010. While this misses some incidents that occurred during the second half of 2010, events that had an ongoing impact – such as a change to a country’s constitution or the outbreak of a religion-related war – were captured by the coding. Researchers for the study carefully reviewed the situation in each country and territory during this six-month period and ensured that restrictions with an ongoing impact were not overlooked.
Religion-related terrorism and armed conflict
Terrorism and war can have huge direct and indirect effects on religious groups, including destroying religious sites, displacing whole communities and inflaming sectarian passions. Accordingly, Pew Research Center tallied the number, location and consequences of religion-related terrorism and armed conflict around the world, as reported in the same primary and secondary sources used to document other forms of intimidation and violence. However, war and terrorism are sufficiently complex that it is not always possible to determine the degree to which they are religiously motivated or state sponsored. Out of an abundance of caution, this study does not include them in the Government Restrictions Index. They are factored instead into the Social Hostilities Index, which includes one question specifically about religion-related terrorism and one question specifically about religion-related war or armed conflict. In addition, other measures in both indexes are likely to pick up spillover effects of war and terrorism on the level of religious tensions in society. For example, hate crimes, mob violence and sectarian fighting that occur in the aftermath of a terrorist attack or in the context of a religion-related war would be counted in the Social Hostilities Index, and laws or policies that clearly discriminate against a particular religious group would be registered on the Government Restrictions Index.
For the purposes of this study, the term “religion-related terrorism” is defined as premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatants by subnational groups or clandestine agents that have some identifiable religious ideology or religious motivation. It also includes acts carried out by groups that have a nonreligious identity but affect religious personnel, such as clergy. Readers should note that it is the political character and motivation of the groups, not the type of violence, that is at issue here. For instance, a bombing would not be classified as religion-related terrorism if there was no clearly discernible religious ideology or bias behind it, unless it was directed at religious personnel. For the 2013-2020 coding years, the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) was used to find information on religion-related terrorism.
During the 2013-2020 period, researchers used the GTD’s classification of terrorist incidents, which counted attacks on military targets as terrorism. For 2021 events, researchers made the decision not to count incidents involving police or military targets since they would notqualify as noncombatant targets.
“Religion-related war or armed conflict” is defined as armed conflict (a conflict that involves sustained casualties over time or more than 1,000 battle deaths) in which religious rhetoric is commonly used to justify the use of force, or in which one or more of the combatants primarily identifies itself or the opposing side by religion.
Changes to Somalia’s coding
Starting with data covering 2013, researchers changed the way they coded government restrictions in Somalia. In previous years of the study, researchers had coded actions by the al-Shabab rebel group as government restrictions, largely because the group effectively controlled large swathes of Somali territory. The extent of al-Shabab control over Somali territory decreased in calendar year 2013, so researchers did not code their actions as government restrictions but rather as social hostilities. Researchers continued to follow this policy when coding data for 2021.
Crimea and other disputed territories coding
Starting with data covering 2015, researchers coded incidents occurring in Crimea as part of Russia’s GRI and SHI scores. This is to reflect Russia’s de facto control over Crimea and is not intended as a Pew Research Center position on the de jure status of the territory, which the United Nations recognizes as part of Ukraine.17
For events in 2022, researchers included restrictions occurring in regions invaded by Russian forces during the year under Russia’s GRI score instead of Ukraine’s GRI score. When reviewing events that occurred in 2022, researchers counted restrictions in regions controlled by Russian armed forces during that year as contributing to Russia’s GRI score instead of Ukraine’s GRI score. The regions include Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, Mykolayiv and Zaporizhzhya Oblasts.18 This reflects Russia’s de facto control over these regions and is not intended as a Pew Research Center position on the de jure status of these regions, which the United Nations recognizes as part of Ukraine. Social hostilities in these regions were coded under Ukraine’s SHI for 2022.
Changes to Yemen’s coding
Starting with data covering 2016, researchers changed the way they coded social hostilities in Yemen. In previous years of the study, researchers had coded actions by Houthi rebels as social hostilities. In 2016, however, Houthis formed their own government and had control of territory that is home to more than half of Yemen’s population.19 For this reason, researchers coded actions by Houthis in 2016 as government restrictions rather than social hostilities and continued to do so in 2021.
Displacement coding
Starting with data covering 2016, researchers changed the way they coded displacement caused by religion-related conflict or terrorism. Previously, researchers would record displacement figures that were reported in any sources. During the coding period covering 2015, researchers continued to code displacement figures in this way but also recorded displacement figures from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), as well as the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), in order to compare the results. Researchers found that the figures from the UNHCR and IDMC more closely matched UN estimates for new displacements in the calendar year than did the previous method of capturing displacements, which tended to overestimate the number of new displacements in a coding year because the figures often included the total number of displaced people from a country and not necessarily the newly displaced. Therefore, beginning with the data covering 2016, researchers exclusively used UNHCR and IDMC figures to more conservatively estimate the number of new displacements in the coding year. Displacement was only coded in countries with active religion-related conflict or terrorism in order to avoid including displacements from other types of conflicts or terrorism.
Country constitution audit
Researchers conducted an audit of country constitutions for coding covering the years 2007-2014. While the vast majority of country constitutions were correctly coded as to whether they included religious freedom provisions, there were a few countries where the coding was amended. These included Mexico, Costa Rica, Fiji, Iran, Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, Uruguay, Cameroon, Kenya and Mozambique. These amendments resulted in minimal changes in these countries’ overall GRI scores and did not alter overall trends represented in previous reports. Two countries – Mexico and Costa Rica – had score changes that pushed them from one category to another in 2014. Mexico’s 2014 GRI score decreased from “high” to “moderate,” while Costa Rica’s 2014 GRI score increased from “low” to “moderate.”
Potential biases
As noted earlier, the primary and secondary sources indicate that the North Korean government is among the most repressive in the world, including toward religion. But because independent observers lack regular access to North Korea, the sources are unable to provide the kind of specific, timely information that forms the basis of this report. Therefore, North Korea is not included on either index.
This raises two important issues concerning potential information bias in the sources. The first is whether other countries that limit outsiders’ access and that may seek to obscure or distort their record on religious restrictions were adequately covered by the sources. Countries with relatively limited access have multiple primary and secondary sources of information that Pew Research Center used for its coding.
Each is also covered by other secondary quantitative datasets on religious restrictions that have used a similar coding scheme, including earlier years of coded U.S. State Department report data produced by Brian J. Grim at Penn State University’s Association of Religion Data Archives (ARDA) project (four datasets); independent coding by experts at the Hudson Institute’s Center for Religious Liberty using indexes also available from ARDA (one dataset); and content analysis of country constitutions conducted by the Becket Fund for Religious Liberty (one dataset). Pew Research Center staff used these for cross-validation. Thus, contrary to what one might expect, even most countries that limit access to information tend to receive fairly extensive coverage by groups that monitor religious restrictions.
The second key question – the flipside of the first – is whether countries that provide freer access to information receive worse scores simply because more information is available on them. As described more fully in the Methodology in the baseline report, Pew Research Center staff compared the length of U.S. State Department reports on freer-access countries with those of less-free-access countries. The comparison found that the median number of words was approximately three times as large for the limited-access countries as for the open-access countries. This suggests that problems in freer-access countries are generally not overreported in the U.S. State Department’s reports.
Only when it comes to religion-related violence and intimidation in society do the sources report more problems in the freer-access countries than in the limited-access ones. However, the Social Hostilities Index includes several measures – such as SHI Q.8 (“Did religious groups themselves attempt to prevent other religious groups from being able to operate?”) and SHI Q.11 (“Were women harassed for violating religious dress codes?”) – that are less susceptible to such reporting bias because they capture general social trends or attitudes as well as specific incidents. With these limitations in mind, it appears that the coded information on social hostilities is a fair gauge of the situation in the vast majority of countries and a valuable complement to the information on government restrictions.
Data on social impediments to religious practice can more confidently be used to make comparisons among countries with sufficient openness, which includes more than nine-in-ten countries covered in the coding.
An analysis by Grim and Richard Wike, Pew Research Center’s director of global attitudes research, tested the reliability of the U.S. State Department’s reports on social impediments to religious practice by comparing public opinion data with data coded from the reports in previous years by Grim and experts at Penn State University. They concluded that “the understanding of social religious intolerance embodied in the U.S. State Department’s reports is comparable with the results of population surveys and individual expert opinion.”20
Coding harassment of specific religious groups
As in previous reports, this study provides a summary of the number of countries where specific religious groups faced government or social harassment. This is essentially a cross-tabulation of GRI.Q.11 (“Was there harassment or intimidation of religious groups by any level of government?”) and the first type of religious hatred or bias measured in SHI.Q.1.a (“Did individuals face harassment or intimidation motivated by religious hatred or bias?”). For the purposes of this study, the definition of harassment includes any mention in the primary and secondary sources of an offense against an individual or group based on religious identity. Such offenses may range from physical attacks and direct coercion to more subtle forms of discrimination. But prejudicial opinions or attitudes, in and of themselves, do not constitute harassment unless they are acted upon in a palpable way.
As noted above, this study provides data on the number of countries in which different religious groups are harassed or intimidated. But the study does not assess either the severity or the frequency of the harassment in each country. Therefore, the results should not be interpreted as gauging which religious group faces the most harassment or persecution around the world.
New analysis on the relationship between GRI and SHI, 2018-2022
For the latest report, researchers analyzed how GRI scores compare with SHI scores, and vice versa – essentially, whether a country’s scores on one index are a good predictor of its scores on the other index.
As a starting point, we used average scores on the GRI and SHI for the five most recent years of data (from 2018 through 2022) and graphed all 198 countries’ average scores on a scatterplot chart, as shown in the accompanying graph. The reason we chose to analyze five-year averages of the index scores was that we wanted a more stable set of scores than an analysis of any single year would allow, because multiyear analyses reduce the impact of year-to-year fluctuations that often occur in the index scores of individual countries.
We then looked to see if the averaged national GRI scores from these years effectively served as a predictor of averaged national SHI scores, and vice versa. This involved conducting a regression analysis and plotting the results – an upward sloped straight line – on the accompanying scatterplot chart. The upward slope of the line shows that lower scores on one index are, in fact, generally associated with lower scores on the other index, and that higher scores on one index are generally associated with higher scores on the other.
For example, most countries appear to be clustered in or around the lower left corner, showing that they are low or moderate on both indexes. But as you move away from this corner, the remaining countries appearing elsewhere are fairly dispersed. In our analysis, we discuss the countries clustered in the lower left corner (having relatively low scores on both indexes), the countries that are in the upper right corner (having relatively high scores on both indexes), and the countries in the other two quadrants (high on one index and low on the other).
